Marseille vs Auxerre – 13 Mar 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 26 Fri, Mar 13 · 19:45 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 3rd · 46 pts · 25 played LDLWW

1–0Full time

Auxerre 16th · 19 pts · 25 played DWLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille were clear favourites.

Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Auxerre. Marseille had 6 days of rest, Auxerre 6.1 and had to travel 520 km.

Away travel520 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Marseille63%

Draw22%

Auxerre15%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.83

Marseille67%

Draw20%

Auxerre13%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.84

Marseille62%

Draw23%

Auxerre15%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.82

Marseille55%

Draw25%

Auxerre20%

Expected goals 1.72 – 0.93

Marseille62%

Draw23%

Auxerre15%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.85

Over 2.5 52% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Marseille)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 63

Team strength

Marseille

Auxerre

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

48 AttackIn forecast 39

46 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Auxerre

2.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.76

1.32 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

76% Scored inContext 44%

28% Clean sheetsContext 24%

13.76 ShotsContext 10.32

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

39% On target shareContext 30%

8.76 Shots in the boxContext 6.52

64% Box shareContext 62%

15% ConversionContext 7%

1.39 OffsidesContext 2.14

10.24 Shots allowedContext 11.32

4.12 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

2.73 BlocksContext 3.00

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.28

70% Save rateContext 72%

58% PossessionIn forecast 44%

551 PassesContext 370

490 Accurate passesContext 299

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.77

12.52 FoulsContext 12.88

10.24 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.08

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.12

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

60% Scored inContext 30%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.30 ShotsContext 9.90

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.88

39% On target shareContext 23%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.89

59% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.38 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.30 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.10 BlocksContext 3.56

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

53% Save rateContext 72%

55% PossessionIn forecast 43%

518 PassesContext 373

452 Accurate passesContext 299

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.70 FoulsContext 12.40

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km639 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Auxerre

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel520 km1,037 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Mar	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	520 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	639 km	1,037 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Rulli(G)

32F. Medina 4C. Egan-Riley 28B. Pavard 22T. Weah

23P. Højbjerg 19G. Kondogbia

14Igor Paixão 27Q. Timber 10M. Greenwood

17P. Aubameyang

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Auxerre Confirmed XI

5-4-1

16D. Léon(G)

22F. Oppegård 92C. Akpa 20S. Diomandé 24B. Okoh 27L. Sy

19D. Namaso 5K. Danois 42E. Owusu 7J. Casimir

9S. Mara

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Auxerre Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Marseille+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Auxerre+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 2.25points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 8-3-1
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 1.25

Auxerre · Away 0.58points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-7
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Marseille	Auxerre
Toulouse	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Lyon	W 3–2 HL 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 0–2 A
Strasbourg	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–5 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Paris FC	D 2–2 AW 5–2 H	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Lens	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Angers	W 5–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Nantes	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 A
Monaco	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Lille	L 0–1 A	L 3–4 H
Nice	W 5–1 A	L 1–3 A
LE Havre	W 6–2 H	L 0–1 H
Metz	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H
Lorient	W 4–0 H	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Rennes	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 HD 2–2 A
Points	43 of 72 · 1.79 per game	19 of 72 · 0.79 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Marseille wins0 draws2 Auxerre wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 20%

1 Nov 2025Auxerre0–1Marseille
22 Feb 2025Auxerre3–0Marseille
8 Nov 2024Marseille1–3Auxerre
30 Apr 2023Marseille2–1Auxerre
3 Sep 2022Auxerre0–2Marseille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	2.08	0.76
Conceded per game	1.32	1.40
Match goals	3.40	2.16	2.75
Over 1.5	72%	56%
Over 2.5	64%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	48%	24%
Both teams scored	48%	36%	49%
Clean sheets	28%	24%
Failed to score	24%	56%
Games	25	25

	Marseille	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	0.80
Conceded per game	1.80	1.40
Match goals	3.50	2.20	2.75
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.54	4.72
Corners conceded	3.71	4.28
Match total	8.25	9.00	9.10
Over 8.5	38% 9/24	52% 13/25
Over 9.5	25% 6/24	32% 8/25
Over 10.5	17% 4/24	24% 6/25
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.32
Opponent cards	1.64	2.64
Match total	4.04	4.96	4.00
Over 3.5	64% 16/25	76% 19/25
Over 4.5	48% 12/25	48% 12/25

	Marseille	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.80
Corners conceded	3.80	4.20
Match total	8.00	9.00	9.10
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.30
Opponent cards	1.50	2.40
Match total	3.90	4.70	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 63 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.38league 3.70

Red cards0.29league 0.28

Cards 5+29%league 36%

Fouls26.2league 23.9

Penalties0.33league 0.39

Home wins37%league 48%

Marseille4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds2

L4 Jan 26H · Nantes0–23
W23 Aug 25H · Paris FC5–21
L8 Nov 24H · Auxerre1–33
D12 Jan 24H · Strasbourg1–13

Auxerre9 with this referee

Record4-3-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 4 Reds2

W15 Feb 26A · Metz3–12
W21 Sep 25H · Toulouse1–02
D10 May 25H · Nantes1–13
W30 Mar 25H · Montpellier1–03
D24 Jan 25H · Saint Etienne1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.