Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were clear favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Marseille had 14.2 days of rest, LE Havre 13.2 and had to travel 798 km.
Away travel798 kmRest days14.2 · 13.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
Marseille70%
Draw19%
LE Havre11%
Marseille71%
Draw18%
LE Havre11%
Marseille72%
Draw18%
LE Havre10%
Marseille63%
Draw22%
LE Havre15%
Marseille70%
Draw19%
LE Havre11%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 72
Team strength
Marseille
LE Havre
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
48
AttackIn forecast
20
46
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleLE Havre
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
71%
Scored inContext
71%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.71
ShotsContext
11.29
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
38%
On target shareContext
32%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
65%
Box shareContext
53%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.60
9.29
Shots allowedContext
7.57
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.67
BlocksContext
2.00
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
81%
Save rateContext
55%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
559
PassesContext
405
500
Accurate passesContext
334
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.00
FoulsContext
15.43
9.71
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
11.00
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
42%
On target shareContext
36%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
66%
Box shareContext
56%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.38
11.40
Shots allowedContext
8.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.11
BlocksContext
2.83
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
81%
Save rateContext
52%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
546
PassesContext
407
486
Accurate passesContext
337
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.30
FoulsContext
13.80
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel798 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 798 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
12J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
23P. Højbjerg
17M. O'Riley
14Igor Paixão
8A. Gomes
10M. Greenwood
97P. Aubameyang
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
8Y. Kechta
15A. Seko
14R. Ndiaye
13F. Doucouré
70M. Samatta
45I. Soumaré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- LE Havre+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
LE Havre · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Marseille wins0 draws0 LE Havre wins
Goals per game3.25 – 0.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 10 May 2025LE Havre1–3Marseille
- 5 Jan 2025Marseille5–1LE Havre
- 19 May 2024LE Havre1–2Marseille
- 8 Oct 2023Marseille3–0LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.57 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 71% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Marseille | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.57 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 71% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.20 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.29 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Marseille | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 7.71 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.71
Red cards0.25league 0.32
Cards 5+38%league 35%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.35league 0.52
Home wins39%league 53%
Marseille6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D19 Jan 25H · Strasbourg1–13
- W3 Nov 24A · Nantes2–11
- W12 May 24H · Lorient3–13
- L5 Apr 24A · Lille1–36
- W14 Jan 23H · Lorient3–11
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L16 Mar 25A · Lyon2–43
- L28 Sep 24H · Lille0–32
- L3 Dec 23H · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- L1 Oct 23H · Lille0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille7 games · scored 15 · conceded 5
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
LE Havre7 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
