Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were clear favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 22). Marseille had 12 days of rest, Lorient 13.2 and had to travel 842 km.
Away travel842 kmRest days12 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille66%
Draw20%
Lorient14%
Marseille65%
Draw21%
Lorient14%
Marseille66%
Draw20%
Lorient14%
Marseille59%
Draw23%
Lorient18%
Marseille65%
Draw21%
Lorient14%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 75
Team strength
Marseille
Lorient
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
48
AttackIn forecast
28
46
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleLorient
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
33%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.67
ShotsContext
14.00
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
26%
On target shareContext
29%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
63%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.33
Shots allowedContext
10.33
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.00
BlocksContext
3.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
71%
Save rateContext
53%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
533
PassesContext
429
475
Accurate passesContext
367
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.60
10.33
FoulsContext
15.33
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.67
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
-0.76
70%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
15.30
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
39%
On target shareContext
33%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
73%
Box shareContext
65%
19%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.67
9.90
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.63
BlocksContext
2.44
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
63%
Save rateContext
62%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
561
PassesContext
429
501
Accurate passesContext
359
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.30
FoulsContext
13.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest12 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km554 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel842 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 842 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 554 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
12J. de Lange(G)
32F. Medina
21N. Aguerd
28B. Pavard
62A. Murillo
19G. Kondogbia
8A. Gomes
22T. Weah
26B. Nadir
10M. Greenwood
9A. Gouiri
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
3M. Talbi
5B. Meïté
44D. Yongwa
6L. Abergel
8Noah Cadiou
93J. Mvuka
29D. Karim
17J. Makengo
28S. Soumano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lorient+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lorient · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Marseille wins1 draws0 Lorient wins
Goals per game2.83 – 0.83
Over 2.583%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 12 May 2024Marseille3–1Lorient
- 10 Dec 2023Lorient2–4Marseille
- 9 Apr 2023Lorient0–0Marseille
- 14 Jan 2023Marseille3–1Lorient
- 8 May 2022Lorient0–3Marseille
- 17 Oct 2021Marseille4–1Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.33 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Marseille | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.33 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.67 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 3.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 6.34 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Marseille | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.80 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.20 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 3.37
Red cards0.27league 0.33
Cards 5+43%league 37%
Fouls24.1league 23.2
Penalties0.27league 0.48
Home wins36%league 67%
Marseille6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L8 Mar 25H · Lens0–13
- W5 Jan 25H · LE Havre5–11
- W2 Mar 24A · Clermont Foot5–11
- D20 Dec 23A · Montpellier1–11
- W8 Oct 23H · LE Havre3–00
Lorient5 with this referee
Record1-4-0
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W18 Feb 24A · Strasbourg3–11
- D3 Dec 23A · Toulouse1–14
- D5 Mar 23A · Lyon0–00
- D24 Oct 21H · Bordeaux1–14
- D8 Aug 21A · Saint Etienne1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille3 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lorient3 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
5
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 25 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
9
46-60
5
61-75
1
10
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
