Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were clear favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 27). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Marseille had 8.2 days of rest, Nice 8 and had to travel 159 km.
Away travel159 kmRest days8.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille61%
Draw22%
Nice17%
Marseille60%
Draw23%
Nice17%
Marseille64%
Draw21%
Nice15%
Marseille54%
Draw24%
Nice22%
Marseille61%
Draw22%
Nice17%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 108
Team strength
Marseille
Nice
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
48
AttackIn forecast
26
46
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleNice
1.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.87
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
77%
Scored inContext
67%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.23
ShotsContext
10.57
5.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
38%
On target shareContext
37%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.72
63%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.12
9.97
Shots allowedContext
14.20
3.97
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.24
2.56
BlocksContext
3.77
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
69%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
540
PassesContext
410
478
Accurate passesContext
341
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.10
FoulsContext
12.43
10.23
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
70%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
62%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.75
11.20
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
1.90
BlocksContext
2.40
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
62%
Save rateContext
58%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
475
PassesContext
385
409
Accurate passesContext
312
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.64
12.00
FoulsContext
12.20
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,684 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Nice
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel159 km1,657 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 159 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,684 km | 1,657 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
33Emerson
18A. Vermeeren
23P. Højbjerg
6Tochukwu Nnadi
22T. Weah
27Q. Timber
17P. Aubameyang
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
26M. Bard
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
92J. Clauss
8M. Sanson
99S. Abdul Samed
6H. Boudaoui
25M. Cho
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille-2.2 pp
- Draw+0.8 pp
- Nice+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.20points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-3-2
- Scored
- 2.47
- Conceded
- 1.20
Nice · Away
0.73points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-10
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Metz | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Lille | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Lyon | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Strasbourg | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H | L 0–4 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Lens | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Angers | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Nantes | L 0–2 H | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 6–2 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 49 of 87 · 1.69 per game | 29 of 87 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Marseille wins2 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.78 – 1.22
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 21 Nov 2025Nice1–5Marseille
- 26 Jan 2025Nice2–0Marseille
- 14 Sep 2024Marseille2–0Nice
- 24 Apr 2024Marseille2–2Nice
- 21 Oct 2023Nice1–0Marseille
- 5 Feb 2023Marseille1–3Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.93 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.87 | |
| Match goals | 3.27 | 3.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 53% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 33% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Marseille | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.57 | 5.48 | |
| Match total | 8.46 | 10.31 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 12/28 | 72% 21/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 8/28 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 6/28 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.37 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 4.07 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 13/30 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Marseille | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.20 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.80 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.68
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+36%league 36%
Fouls24.7league 23.7
Penalties0.40league 0.37
Home wins42%league 47%
Marseille15 with this referee
Record6-3-6
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- L8 Feb 26A · Paris Saint Germain0–52
- W8 Nov 25H · Stade Brestois 293–00
- W10 May 25A · LE Havre3–12
- L29 Mar 25A · Reims1–30
- D14 Dec 24H · Lille1–12
Nice13 with this referee
Record7-3-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 4
Reds4
- L21 Mar 26H · Paris Saint Germain0–41
- L14 Dec 25A · Lens0–22
- D5 Oct 25A · Monaco2–23
- W25 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain3–11
- W23 Feb 25H · Montpellier2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille30 games · scored 58 · conceded 40
7
5
0-15
10
6
16-30
7
3
31-45
8
7
46-60
9
6
61-75
17
13
76-90
Nice30 games · scored 34 · conceded 56
4
9
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
13
31-45
7
8
46-60
4
8
61-75
5
12
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
