Marseille vs Paris FC – 23 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 16:00 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 11th · 0 pts · 1 played L

5–2Full time

Paris FC 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille were clear favourites.

Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 12). Marseille had 7.8 days of rest, Paris FC 6 and had to travel 661 km.

Away travel661 kmRest days7.8 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Marseille77%

Draw15%

Paris FC8%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.75

Marseille75%

Draw16%

Paris FC9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

Marseille77%

Draw15%

Paris FC8%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.75

Marseille70%

Draw18%

Paris FC11%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.84

Marseille75%

Draw16%

Paris FC9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

Over 2.5 65% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Marseille)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 51

Team strength

Marseille

Paris FC

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 12

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

48 AttackIn forecast 46

46 DefenceIn forecast 38

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Paris FC

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

1.73 xGVia Att/Def —

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext —

0% Clean sheetsContext —

15.10 ShotsContext —

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

36% On target shareContext —

10.30 Shots in the boxContext —

69% Box shareContext —

15% ConversionContext —

2.43 OffsidesContext —

9.70 Shots allowedContext —

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

2.44 BlocksContext —

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext —

59% Save rateContext —

62% PossessionIn forecast —

587 PassesContext —

525 Accurate passesContext —

90% Pass accuracyContext —

7.07 Team ratingContext —

11.10 FoulsContext —

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext —

1.50 Yellow cardsContext —

0.00 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,531 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris FC

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel661 km529 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Aug	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	661 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,531 km	529 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Rulli(G)

6U. Garcia 5L. Balerdi 4C. Egan-Riley 62A. Murillo

23P. Højbjerg 8A. Gomes

22T. Weah 9A. Gouiri 10M. Greenwood

97P. Aubameyang

Paris FC Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16Obed Nkambadio(G)

19N. Sangui 6Otávio 5M. Mbow 31Samir Sophian Chergui

17Adama Camara 4V. Marchetti 21M. Lopez

27M. Simon 9W. Geubbels 10I. Kebbal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris FC Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Marseille+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Paris FC+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home No home games yet this season.

Paris FC · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	3.36
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	Marseille	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	3.36
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	12.00	7.00
Corners conceded	1.00	3.00
Match total	13.00	10.00	10.00
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	4.00	3.89
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Marseille	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	7.00
Corners conceded	2.78	3.00
Match total	9.00	10.00	10.00
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.00
Opponent cards	2.10	3.00
Match total	3.60	4.00	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/1

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.22league 3.30

Red cards0.27league 0.20

Cards 5+25%league 40%

Fouls26.1league 22.6

Penalties0.27league 0.20

Home wins37%league 50%

Marseille2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L8 Nov 24H · Auxerre1–33
D12 Jan 24H · Strasbourg1–13

Paris FC

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.