Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Marseille had 7 days of rest, Paris FC 7.2 and had to travel 661 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel661 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille58%
Draw22%
Paris FC20%
Marseille58%
Draw22%
Paris FC19%
Marseille56%
Draw22%
Paris FC22%
Marseille51%
Draw23%
Paris FC26%
Marseille57%
Draw22%
Paris FC21%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
Heat stress
27°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 78%
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 150
Team strength
Marseille
Paris FC
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
48
AttackIn forecast
46
46
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleParis FC
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
2.27
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.50
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.77
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
41%
On target shareContext
21%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
59%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
—
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
100%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
667
PassesContext
618
609
Accurate passesContext
550
91%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.04
8.00
FoulsContext
10.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
7.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.30
ShotsContext
12.00
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
37%
On target shareContext
37%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.63
64%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
18%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.50
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.56
BlocksContext
2.90
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
62%
Save rateContext
81%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
508
PassesContext
437
443
Accurate passesContext
367
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.10
FoulsContext
8.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
WL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km343 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 53 · 3 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 7.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 661 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 343 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
23P. Højbjerg
14Igor Paixão
7A. Gomes
8H. Abdelli
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
1K. Trapp(G)
15L. Koleosho
14H. Traoré
42D. Coppola
31Samir Sophian Chergui
17Adama Camara
7P. Pagis
33P. Lees-Melou
20M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+2.2 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Paris FC-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Paris FC · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Marseille wins1 draws0 Paris FC wins
Goals per game3.50 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Jan 2026Paris FC2–2Marseille
- 23 Aug 2025Marseille5–2Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.50 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Marseille | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.00 | 10.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Marseille | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 9.00 | 10.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 2.70 | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 150 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 2.96
Red cards0.23league 0.15
Cards 5+29%league 15%
Fouls22.9league 22.7
Penalties0.35league 0.42
Home wins40%league 27%
Marseille12 with this referee
Record4-2-6
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- L5 Apr 26A · Monaco1–22
- W4 Oct 25A · Metz3–00
- L16 Mar 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–30
- W1 Dec 24H · Monaco2–10
- W20 Oct 24A · Montpellier5–03
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W22 Mar 26H · LE Havre3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Paris FC2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
4
8
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
