Marseille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Marseille57.9%fair odds 1.73
Draw22.6%fair odds 4.42
Paris FC19.5%fair odds 5.12
Expected goals1.98 – 1.07total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Paris FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Marseille ↓ · Paris FC → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Marseille goals, columns Paris FC goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%9.45
- 2–19.9%10.07
- 2–09.3%10.79
- 1–08.8%11.30
- 3–16.5%15.28
- 3–06.1%16.37
- 1–25.4%18.58
- 2–25.3%18.80
- 0–05.3%18.95
- 0–14.6%21.97
Winning margin
17.1%
Marseille by 3+
fair 5.86
17.8%
Marseille by 2
fair 5.61
23.0%
Marseille by 1
fair 4.35
22.6%
Draw
fair 4.42
12.2%
Paris FC by 1
fair 8.19
5.2%
Paris FC by 2
fair 19.11
2.1%
Paris FC by 3+
fair 47.69
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Marseille goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Paris FC goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 57.9% | 56.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Paris FC win | 19.5% | 20.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 57.1% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 56.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Marseille | 1.98 | 1.91 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Paris FC | 1.07 | 1.06 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Marseille win57.9%1.73
- Draw22.6%4.42
- Paris FC win19.5%5.12
- Double chance Marseille or draw80.5%1.24
- Double chance Marseille or Paris FC77.4%1.29
- Double chance Paris FC or draw42.1%2.37
- Draw no bet Marseille74.8%1.34
- Draw no bet Paris FC25.2%3.96
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.3%1.23
- Over 2.558.7%1.70
- Over 3.536.4%2.75
- Over 4.519.3%5.19
- Under 1.518.7%5.35
- Under 2.541.3%2.42
- Under 3.563.6%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.33
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
- Marseille win and yes28.9%3.46
- Draw and yes17.3%5.77
- Paris FC win and yes11.0%9.12
Team goals
- Marseille over 0.586.1%1.16
- Marseille over 1.558.8%1.70
- Marseille over 2.531.7%3.15
- Paris FC over 0.565.7%1.52
- Paris FC over 1.529.0%3.44
- Paris FC over 2.59.4%10.65
- Marseille clean sheet34.3%2.92
- Paris FC clean sheet13.9%7.22
- Marseille win to nil29.0%3.45
- Paris FC win to nil8.6%11.66
Handicap
- Marseille −1.534.9%2.87
- Marseille −2.517.1%5.86
- Paris FC +1.565.1%1.54
- Paris FC +2.582.9%1.21
- Paris FC −1.57.3%13.64
- Marseille +1.592.7%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored26
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result36.5%
1X2 Brier0.673
Over 2.5 called right65.4%
BTTS called right57.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.3% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.9% | 61.5% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.0% | 25.0% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 70.3% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 17 of 26 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.7155 | 0.7119 |
| Avg chance given to result | 34.9% | 34.5% |
| Favourite won | 47.1% | 41.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 26 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.