Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rennes. Marseille had 7 days of rest, Rennes 7 and had to travel 765 km.
Away travel765 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille41%
Draw24%
Rennes35%
Marseille41%
Draw27%
Rennes32%
Marseille41%
Draw24%
Rennes35%
Marseille33%
Draw24%
Rennes44%
Marseille40%
Draw24%
Rennes35%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 77
Team strength
Marseille
Rennes
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
48
AttackIn forecast
63
46
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleRennes
1.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.76
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
76%
Scored inContext
82%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.21
ShotsContext
13.48
5.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.91
38%
On target shareContext
36%
8.97
Shots in the boxContext
8.53
63%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.55
9.97
Shots allowedContext
12.42
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
2.57
BlocksContext
3.91
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
68%
Save rateContext
71%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
535
PassesContext
470
473
Accurate passesContext
399
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.42
FoulsContext
12.12
10.45
Fouls sufferedContext
11.58
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.20
ShotsContext
15.10
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
34%
On target shareContext
38%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
62%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.89
9.70
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.10
BlocksContext
3.20
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
64%
Save rateContext
76%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
478
PassesContext
516
410
Accurate passesContext
440
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.60
FoulsContext
11.80
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,597 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rennes
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel765 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 765 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,597 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 96 | 98 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
22T. Weah
23P. Højbjerg
6Tochukwu Nnadi
14Igor Paixão
9A. Gouiri
10M. Greenwood
17P. Aubameyang
Rennes
Confirmed XI
50Mathys Silistrie(G)
26Q. Merlin
24A. Rouault
48A. Aït Boudlal
18M. Nagida
21V. Rongier
10L. Blas
45M. Camara
17S. Szymański
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rennes+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.13points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-4-2
- Scored
- 2.38
- Conceded
- 1.19
Rennes · Away
1.56points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-5
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | W 1–0 AW 6–2 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Nantes | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Nice | D 1–1 HW 5–1 A | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Lorient | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Metz | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H |
| Lille | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Lyon | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–4 AW 3–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | W 4–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Strasbourg | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A |
| Paris FC | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Lens | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Angers | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 56 of 96 · 1.75 per game | 56 of 96 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Marseille wins1 draws3 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.522%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 15 Aug 2025Rennes1–0Marseille
- 17 May 2025Marseille4–2Rennes
- 11 Jan 2025Rennes1–2Marseille
- 17 Mar 2024Rennes2–0Marseille
- 3 Dec 2023Marseille2–0Rennes
- 5 Mar 2023Rennes0–1Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.82 | 1.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 3.18 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 70% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 58% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 18% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Marseille | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.03 | 5.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 10.06 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 13/30 | 67% 22/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 9/30 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 7/30 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 3.88 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 22/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 15/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Marseille | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.90 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.66
Red cards0.38league 0.26
Cards 5+40%league 36%
Fouls23.8league 23.6
Penalties0.32league 0.37
Home wins40%league 46%
Marseille11 with this referee
Record5-4-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds3
- W17 Jan 26A · Angers5–21
- L18 Feb 24A · Stade Brestois 290–11
- L21 Oct 23A · Nice0–13
- D1 Sep 23A · Nantes1–12
- W11 Feb 23A · Clermont Foot2–03
Rennes9 with this referee
Record6-0-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W19 Apr 26A · Strasbourg3–01
- L31 Jan 26A · Monaco0–41
- W14 Sep 25H · Lyon3–12
- W4 May 24A · Metz3–23
- W26 Nov 23H · Reims3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille33 games · scored 60 · conceded 44
7
5
0-15
10
6
16-30
7
3
31-45
9
10
46-60
10
6
61-75
17
14
76-90
Rennes33 games · scored 58 · conceded 47
7
6
0-15
15
1
16-30
5
10
31-45
12
10
46-60
8
10
61-75
11
10
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
7
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
