Marseille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Marseille40.7%fair odds 2.46
Draw23.9%fair odds 4.19
Rennes35.5%fair odds 2.82
Expected goals1.73 – 1.61total 3.34
Likeliest score1–110.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rennes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Marseille ↓ · Rennes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Marseille goals, columns Rennes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%9.64
- 2–18.5%11.71
- 1–27.9%12.61
- 2–26.9%14.54
- 1–05.6%17.87
- 2–05.3%18.85
- 0–15.2%19.38
- 3–14.9%20.25
- 0–24.6%21.86
- 1–34.3%23.48
Winning margin
9.2%
Marseille by 3+
fair 10.92
12.3%
Marseille by 2
fair 8.11
19.2%
Marseille by 1
fair 5.21
23.9%
Draw
fair 4.19
17.8%
Rennes by 1
fair 5.63
10.6%
Rennes by 2
fair 9.41
7.1%
Rennes by 3+
fair 14.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Marseille goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Rennes goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 40.7% | 40.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Rennes win | 35.5% | 35.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 63.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 66.4% | 64.9% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Marseille | 1.73 | 1.68 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Rennes | 1.61 | 1.56 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Marseille win40.7%2.46
- Draw23.9%4.19
- Rennes win35.5%2.82
- Double chance Marseille or draw64.5%1.55
- Double chance Marseille or Rennes76.1%1.31
- Double chance Rennes or draw59.3%1.69
- Draw no bet Marseille53.4%1.87
- Draw no bet Rennes46.6%2.15
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.585.2%1.17
- Over 2.564.9%1.54
- Over 3.542.9%2.33
- Over 4.524.6%4.07
- Under 1.514.8%6.75
- Under 2.535.1%2.85
- Under 3.557.1%1.75
Both teams to score
- Yes66.4%1.51
- No33.6%2.98
- Yes and over 2.556.0%1.78
- Marseille win and yes24.7%4.04
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Rennes win and yes21.9%4.57
Team goals
- Marseille over 0.582.3%1.21
- Marseille over 1.551.7%1.93
- Marseille over 2.525.2%3.97
- Rennes over 0.580.0%1.25
- Rennes over 1.547.8%2.09
- Rennes over 2.521.9%4.56
- Marseille clean sheet20.0%5.00
- Rennes clean sheet17.7%5.66
- Marseille win to nil15.9%6.28
- Rennes win to nil13.6%7.35
Handicap
- Marseille −1.521.5%4.66
- Marseille −2.59.2%10.92
- Rennes +1.578.5%1.27
- Rennes +2.590.8%1.10
- Rennes −1.517.7%5.65
- Marseille +1.582.3%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored297
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.583
Over 2.5 called right55.2%
BTTS called right54.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 44 | 37.8% | 54.5% |
| 40–50% | 94 | 45.0% | 47.9% |
| 50–60% | 73 | 54.2% | 50.7% |
| 60–70% | 44 | 64.3% | 68.2% |
| 70–80% | 28 | 73.9% | 64.3% |
| 80%+ | 14 | 86.3% | 78.6% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 231 of 297 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6017 | 0.5893 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.9% | 53.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 231 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.