Marseille vs Toulouse – 29 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 14 Sat, Nov 29 · 20:05 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 2nd · 28 pts · 13 played LDWWW

2–2Full time

Toulouse 10th · 16 pts · 13 played LDDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille were clear favourites.

Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 35). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Marseille had 8 days of rest, Toulouse 6.2 and had to travel 320 km.

Away travel320 kmRest days8 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Marseille61%

Draw22%

Toulouse16%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.91

Marseille62%

Draw22%

Toulouse16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.91

Marseille63%

Draw22%

Toulouse16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.90

Marseille54%

Draw25%

Toulouse21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Marseille61%

Draw23%

Toulouse17%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.92

Over 2.5 55% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Marseille)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceEric Wattellier

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 86

Team strength

Marseille

Toulouse

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

48 AttackIn forecast 45

46 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Toulouse

2.54 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

0.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.31

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.64 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

85% Scored inContext 69%

38% Clean sheetsContext 31%

13.69 ShotsContext 13.31

5.77 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.85

42% On target shareContext 29%

8.69 Shots in the boxContext 10.42

65% Box shareContext 74%

19% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.71

9.31 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.23

2.90 BlocksContext 3.75

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.27

79% Save rateContext 64%

59% PossessionIn forecast 44%

580 PassesContext 354

522 Accurate passesContext 288

90% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.08 FoulsContext 13.92

9.54 Fouls sufferedContext 11.46

2.15 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.23 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

90% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.20 ShotsContext 14.20

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

42% On target shareContext 28%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

61% Box shareContext 76%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.60

10.20 Shots allowedContext 10.20

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.33

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

77% Save rateContext 70%

58% PossessionIn forecast 45%

567 PassesContext 359

507 Accurate passesContext 292

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.60 FoulsContext 14.70

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km317 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Toulouse

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel320 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Toulouse
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Nov	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	320 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	317 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Rulli(G)

33Emerson 21N. Aguerd 28B. Pavard 22T. Weah

23P. Højbjerg 26B. Nadir

14Igor Paixão 8A. Gomes 10M. Greenwood

97P. Aubameyang

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Restes(G)

2R. Nicolaisen 4C. Cresswell 3M. McKenzie

24D. Methalie 23C. Cásseres 45A. Vossah 19D. Sidibé

9F. Magri 15A. Dønnum

20Emersonn

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Toulouse Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Marseille-1.1 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Toulouse+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 2.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-0
Scored: 3.50
Conceded: 1.00

Toulouse · Away 1.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Marseille	Toulouse
Nice	W 5–1 A	W 1–0 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Auxerre	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Angers	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
LE Havre	W 6–2 H	D 0–0 H
Metz	W 3–0 A	W 4–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	W 1–0 H	L 3–6 H
Lorient	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 A
Lyon	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Rennes	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Points	22 of 30 · 2.20 per game	15 of 30 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Marseille wins2 draws0 Toulouse wins

Goals per game2.83 – 1.33 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 17%

6 Apr 2025Marseille3–2Toulouse
31 Aug 2024Toulouse1–3Marseille
21 Apr 2024Toulouse2–2Marseille
17 Sep 2023Marseille0–0Toulouse
19 Feb 2023Toulouse2–3Marseille
29 Dec 2022Marseille6–1Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	2.54	1.38
Conceded per game	0.92	1.31
Match goals	3.46	2.69	2.87
Over 1.5	69%	62%
Over 2.5	69%	46%	55%
Over 3.5	38%	31%
Both teams scored	46%	46%	52%
Clean sheets	38%	31%
Failed to score	15%	31%
Games	13	13

	Marseille	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	2.80	1.20
Conceded per game	0.80	1.10
Match goals	3.60	2.30	2.87
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.15
Corners conceded	3.83	5.00
Match total	8.83	10.15	9.38
Over 8.5	33% 4/12	69% 9/13
Over 9.5	33% 4/12	62% 8/13
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	62% 8/13
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.46
Opponent cards	1.69	1.92
Match total	4.07	4.38	4.13
Over 3.5	69% 9/13	77% 10/13
Over 4.5	46% 6/13	46% 6/13

	Marseille	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	5.50
Corners conceded	3.80	4.10
Match total	8.40	9.60	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.80
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	4.50	5.00	4.13
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.19league 3.78

Red cards0.21league 0.32

Cards 5+23%league 38%

Fouls20.9league 24.2

Penalties0.35league 0.50

Home wins50%league 51%

Marseille12 with this referee

Record9-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D4 May 25A · Lille1–12
L26 Jan 25A · Nice0–21
W23 Nov 24A · Lens3–13
W28 Apr 24H · Lens2–12
L17 Mar 24A · Rennes0–23

Toulouse2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5 Pens for · against1 · 2

L30 Aug 25H · Paris Saint Germain3–61
W15 Sep 24H · LE Havre2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.