Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Metz were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Metz had 14 days of rest, Angers 14.1 and had to travel 527 km.
Away travel527 kmRest days14 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Metz41%
Draw28%
Angers31%
Metz41%
Draw27%
Angers32%
Metz41%
Draw28%
Angers31%
Metz34%
Draw28%
Angers37%
Metz41%
Draw27%
Angers32%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 76
Team strength
Metz
Angers
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
11
AttackIn forecast
22
17
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzAngers
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
2.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
33%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.00
ShotsContext
7.00
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
15%
On target shareContext
43%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
68%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.33
Shots allowedContext
17.33
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.67
BlocksContext
4.00
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
62%
Save rateContext
89%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
29%
432
PassesContext
285
374
Accurate passesContext
228
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.00
FoulsContext
10.67
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
2.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.80
ShotsContext
7.70
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
31%
On target shareContext
33%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
68%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.17
17.00
Shots allowedContext
14.80
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.00
BlocksContext
3.70
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
64%
Save rateContext
79%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
325
PassesContext
319
251
Accurate passesContext
259
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.20
FoulsContext
11.50
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km556 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel527 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 527 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 556 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
12Alpha Touré
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
39K. Kouao
8B. Traoré
21B. Stambouli
23I. Sané
10G. Hein
7G. Tsitaishvili
30M. Diallo
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
26F. Hanin
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
93H. Belkebla
14Y. Belkhdim
11S. Chérif
6L. Mouton
27L. Rao-Lisoa
35P. Peter
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Angers+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Angers · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Metz wins0 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 14 May 2022Metz1–0Angers
- 3 Oct 2021Angers3–2Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.33 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Metz | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.33 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.00 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Metz | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.67 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.58
Red cards0.29league 0.39
Cards 5+37%league 42%
Fouls25.5league 23.6
Penalties0.22league 0.48
Home wins41%league 68%
Metz4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L7 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 293–41
- D5 Nov 23A · Lyon1–11
- D21 Nov 21H · Bordeaux3–33
- L17 Oct 21H · Rennes0–33
Angers7 with this referee
Record3-0-4
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds2
- W13 Apr 25H · Montpellier2–00
- W5 Jan 25H · Stade Brestois 292–02
- L9 Nov 24H · Paris Saint Germain2–40
- L14 May 23A · Marseille1–32
- L5 Mar 23A · Montpellier0–54
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz3 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Angers3 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
