Metz vs LE Havre – 28 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 28 · 16:15 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Longeville-lès-Metz

Metz 18th · 1 pts · 5 played LLLDL

0–0Full time

LE Havre 17th · 4 pts · 5 played LLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Metz had 7 days of rest, LE Havre 7 and had to travel 439 km.

Away travel439 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Metz39%

Draw27%

LE Havre34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.30

Metz39%

Draw27%

LE Havre34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Metz39%

Draw27%

LE Havre34%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.26

Metz32%

Draw27%

LE Havre41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.45

Metz39%

Draw27%

LE Havre34%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.32

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)

No weather data yet

RefereeGuillaume Paradis

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 2

Team strength

Metz

LE Havre

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

12 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

11 AttackIn forecast 20

17 DefenceIn forecast 22

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Metz

Attack—

Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Metz

LE Havre

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

2.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

60% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.80 ShotsContext 11.60

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

27% On target shareContext 36%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

72% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.33

14.20 Shots allowedContext 8.40

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

2.75 BlocksContext 2.25

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

60% Save rateContext 58%

49% PossessionIn forecast 47%

471 PassesContext 419

407 Accurate passesContext 346

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.00 FoulsContext 16.00

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

2.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.60 ShotsContext 10.60

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

28% On target shareContext 37%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

67% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.17

15.30 Shots allowedContext 11.10

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.56 BlocksContext 3.29

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

64% Save rateContext 65%

40% PossessionIn forecast 45%

372 PassesContext 397

300 Accurate passesContext 327

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.00 FoulsContext 13.10

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Metz

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,212 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

LE Havre

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel439 km1,131 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Metz	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	439 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,212 km	1,131 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Metz Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

1Jonathan Fischer(G)

4Urie-Michel Mboula 15T. Yegbe 5J. Gbamin 39K. Kouao

14C. Sabaly 20J. Deminguet 8B. Traoré 19Morgan Bokele Mputu

10G. Hein

30M. Diallo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

LE Havre Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99M. Diaw(G)

18Y. Zouaoui 4G. Lloris 6É. Youté 7L. Nego

94A. Touré 15A. Seko 26S. Ebonog

45I. Soumaré 70M. Samatta 30R. Khadra

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Metz Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

LE Havre Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Metz+0.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
LE Havre+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Metz · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

LE Havre · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Metz	LE Havre
Monaco	L 2–5 A	L 1–3 A
Strasbourg	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Points	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Metz wins1 draws0 LE Havre wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 50%

21 Apr 2024LE Havre0–1Metz
29 Oct 2023Metz0–0LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Metz	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.20
Conceded per game	2.60	1.60
Match goals	3.60	2.80	2.70
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	5	5

	Metz	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.20
Conceded per game	2.60	1.60
Match goals	3.60	2.80	2.70
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Metz	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.67
Corners conceded	5.60	3.67
Match total	9.60	7.34	9.61
Over 8.5	20% 1/5	0% 0/3
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	0% 0/3
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	0% 0/3
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.60
Match total	2.20	4.60	4.09
Over 3.5	20% 1/5	80% 4/5
Over 4.5	0% 0/5	40% 2/5

	Metz	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	3.14
Corners conceded	5.40	5.29
Match total	8.70	8.43	9.61
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	3.20	3.40	4.09
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillaume Paradis 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.70

Red cards0.00league 0.36

Cards 5+0%league 40%

Fouls31.0league 24.2

Penalties0.50league 0.54

Home wins50%league 64%

Metz

No previous matches with this referee.

LE Havre1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L24 Aug 25H · Lens1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.