Metz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Metz38.8%fair odds 2.57
Draw27.1%fair odds 3.69
LE Havre34.1%fair odds 2.93
Expected goals1.40 – 1.30total 2.70
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
LE Havre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Metz ↓ · LE Havre → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Metz goals, columns LE Havre goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.76
- 1–08.8%11.39
- 2–18.6%11.67
- 0–18.1%12.37
- 1–27.9%12.60
- 0–07.4%13.55
- 2–06.6%15.14
- 0–25.7%17.65
- 2–25.6%17.99
- 3–14.0%24.99
Winning margin
6.8%
Metz by 3+
fair 14.65
11.6%
Metz by 2
fair 8.59
20.4%
Metz by 1
fair 4.91
27.1%
Draw
fair 3.69
18.8%
LE Havre by 1
fair 5.31
10.0%
LE Havre by 2
fair 10.02
5.3%
LE Havre by 3+
fair 18.99
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Metz goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LE Havre goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 38.8% | 38.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.9% | +0.2 pp |
| LE Havre win | 34.1% | 34.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 51.6% | -1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.4% | 56.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Metz | 1.40 | 1.42 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals LE Havre | 1.30 | 1.32 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Metz win38.8%2.57
- Draw27.1%3.69
- LE Havre win34.1%2.93
- Double chance Metz or draw65.9%1.52
- Double chance Metz or LE Havre72.9%1.37
- Double chance LE Havre or draw61.2%1.64
- Draw no bet Metz53.3%1.88
- Draw no bet LE Havre46.7%2.14
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.7%1.32
- Over 2.550.6%1.98
- Over 3.528.6%3.50
- Over 4.513.7%7.31
- Under 1.524.3%4.12
- Under 2.549.4%2.02
- Under 3.571.4%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes55.4%1.80
- No44.6%2.24
- Yes and over 2.542.5%2.35
- Metz win and yes18.9%5.29
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- LE Havre win and yes16.8%5.95
Team goals
- Metz over 0.575.4%1.33
- Metz over 1.540.8%2.45
- Metz over 2.516.7%6.00
- LE Havre over 0.572.7%1.38
- LE Havre over 1.537.2%2.69
- LE Havre over 2.514.2%7.03
- Metz clean sheet27.3%3.66
- LE Havre clean sheet24.6%4.06
- Metz win to nil19.9%5.01
- LE Havre win to nil17.3%5.79
Handicap
- Metz −1.518.5%5.42
- Metz −2.56.8%14.65
- LE Havre +1.581.5%1.23
- LE Havre +2.593.2%1.07
- LE Havre −1.515.2%6.56
- Metz +1.584.8%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored50
Favourite won64.0%
Avg chance given to result46.7%
1X2 Brier0.494
Over 2.5 called right56.0%
BTTS called right58.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.4% | 57.1% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.7% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.4% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 66.0% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 88.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 23 of 50 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5590 | 0.5406 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.9% |
| Favourite won | 47.8% | 47.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 23 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Strasbourg 1–2 Marseille38·27·35
- ✗Marseille 1–0 Paris Saint Germain18·22·60
- ✗LE Havre 1–1 Lorient43·27·30
- ✗Auxerre 1–0 Toulouse34·28·38
- ✓Monaco 5–2 Metz73·17·10
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 50 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.