Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lille. Metz had 5.1 days of rest, Lille 5.2 and had to travel 271 km.
Away travel271 kmRest days5.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 3
Metz19%
Draw24%
Lille58%
Metz20%
Draw24%
Lille56%
Metz19%
Draw24%
Lille57%
Metz14%
Draw21%
Lille65%
Metz19%
Draw24%
Lille57%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
Metz
Lille
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
11
AttackIn forecast
42
17
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzLille
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
65%
Scored inContext
65%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
8.75
ShotsContext
13.70
3.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
34%
On target shareContext
34%
5.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
62%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.40
Shots allowedContext
10.05
5.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.05
BlocksContext
2.63
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
447
PassesContext
472
386
Accurate passesContext
402
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.45
FoulsContext
11.50
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.15
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
10.90
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
35%
On target shareContext
30%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
56%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.90
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.10
BlocksContext
2.80
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
69%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
445
PassesContext
474
383
Accurate passesContext
411
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.50
FoulsContext
9.40
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.50
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,054 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel271 km1,110 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,054 km | 1,110 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
97F. Ballo-Touré
4Urie-Michel Mboula
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
12Alpha Touré
21B. Stambouli
7G. Tsitaishvili
20J. Deminguet
19L. Michal
30M. Diallo
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
23A. Mandi
22Tiago Santos
32A. Bouaddi
21B. André
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
10H. Haraldsson
20N. Edjouma
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Lille+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Lille · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-5
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 7–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Auxerre | L 1–3 A | W 4–3 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 2–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Marseille | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | W 4–2 H |
| Points | 12 of 57 · 0.63 per game | 29 of 57 · 1.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Metz wins2 draws3 Lille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 26 Oct 2025Lille6–1Metz
- 28 Apr 2024Metz1–2Lille
- 3 Dec 2023Lille2–0Metz
- 18 Feb 2022Lille0–0Metz
- 8 Aug 2021Metz3–3Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.35 | 3.20 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 45% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 35% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Metz | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.05 | 4.05 | |
| Match total | 9.05 | 9.95 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 37% 7/19 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 16% 3/19 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 3/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 3.15 | 4.25 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 6/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Metz | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 8.60 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.10 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.64
Red cards0.00league 0.31
Cards 5+33%league 36%
Fouls26.2league 24.2
Penalties0.11league 0.43
Home wins33%league 49%
Metz2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Jan 26A · Lorient1–12
- D28 Sep 25H · LE Havre0–02
LilleNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz20 games · scored 21 · conceded 46
3
5
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
10
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
8
14
76-90
Lille20 games · scored 34 · conceded 30
4
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
2
7
61-75
20
5
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
5
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
