Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lorient were slight favourites.
Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lorient. Metz had 8.1 days of rest, Lorient 8.2 and had to travel 717 km.
Away travel717 kmRest days8.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Metz25%
Draw27%
Lorient48%
Metz26%
Draw26%
Lorient48%
Metz25%
Draw26%
Lorient49%
Metz20%
Draw25%
Lorient56%
Metz25%
Draw26%
Lorient49%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 90
Team strength
Metz
Lorient
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
11
AttackIn forecast
28
17
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzLorient
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
59%
Scored inContext
72%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.50
ShotsContext
10.84
3.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.72
31%
On target shareContext
34%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
6.74
62%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.13
14.63
Shots allowedContext
10.97
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.57
BlocksContext
2.97
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.72
63%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
438
PassesContext
414
377
Accurate passesContext
351
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.09
FoulsContext
9.44
11.09
Fouls sufferedContext
13.06
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.20
ShotsContext
10.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
29%
On target shareContext
40%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
68%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.11
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
59%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
422
PassesContext
412
360
Accurate passesContext
350
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.10
FoulsContext
8.60
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel717 km881 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 717 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 881 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
61P. Sy(G)
70B. Sarr
15T. Yegbe
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
5J. Gbamin
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
34Nathan Mbala
11G. Kvilitaia
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
3M. Talbi
32N. Adjei
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
8Noah Cadiou
77P. Katseris
29D. Karim
17J. Makengo
15A. Tosin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lorient-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.63points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-10
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.75
Lorient · Away
0.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-8
- Scored
- 0.81
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 4–4 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–3 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Nantes | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Rennes | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Auxerre | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Lille | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Lyon | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 93 · 0.48 per game | 41 of 93 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Metz wins1 draws2 Lorient wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 4 Jan 2026Lorient1–1Metz
- 4 Feb 2024Metz1–2Lorient
- 26 Nov 2023Lorient2–3Metz
- 20 Apr 2022Lorient1–0Metz
- 12 Dec 2021Metz4–1Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.91 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 44% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 28% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Metz | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.06 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 8.56 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 14/31 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 9/31 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 6/31 | 27% 8/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.69 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 3.19 | 3.94 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 15/32 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 6/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Metz | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.60 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.68
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls24.4league 23.6
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins40%league 47%
Metz6 with this referee
Record0-0-6
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L19 Apr 26H · Paris FC1–32
- L1 Mar 26H · Stade Brestois 290–12
- L28 Nov 25H · Rennes0–10
- L18 Feb 24A · Montpellier0–33
- L13 Aug 23A · Rennes1–52
Lorient7 with this referee
Record1-2-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D22 Feb 26A · Nice3–33
- L19 Apr 24A · Nice0–32
- D28 Jan 24H · LE Havre3–34
- L1 Oct 23H · Montpellier0–32
- W4 Sep 22A · Ajaccio1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz32 games · scored 32 · conceded 72
4
12
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
13
31-45
5
9
46-60
2
9
61-75
11
21
76-90
Lorient32 games · scored 44 · conceded 49
4
6
0-15
6
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
8
11
46-60
7
6
61-75
10
16
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
1
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
