Metz vs Nantes – 5 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 28 Sun, Apr 5 · 16:15 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Longeville-lès-Metz

Metz 18th · 14 pts · 27 played LLLLD

0–0Full time

Nantes 17th · 17 pts · 26 played LWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Metz had 14 days of rest, Nantes 13.8 and had to travel 608 km.

Away travel608 kmRest days14 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Metz39%

Draw29%

Nantes33%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.15

Metz40%

Draw27%

Nantes33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Metz39%

Draw29%

Nantes32%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.13

Metz32%

Draw29%

Nantes39%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.29

Metz39%

Draw28%

Nantes33%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.19

Over 2.5 43% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 104

Team strength

Metz

Nantes

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

12 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

11 AttackIn forecast 24

17 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Metz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Metz

Nantes

0.93 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.92

2.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

56% Scored inContext 62%

19% Clean sheetsContext 15%

9.11 ShotsContext 9.96

3.55 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.21

32% On target shareContext 30%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.32

61% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.82

14.93 Shots allowedContext 13.38

5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.62 BlocksContext 4.14

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

65% Save rateContext 67%

48% PossessionIn forecast 43%

441 PassesContext 355

378 Accurate passesContext 284

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.19 FoulsContext 12.23

11.11 Fouls sufferedContext 13.46

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 2.04

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 27 and 26 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

40% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.00 ShotsContext 11.20

3.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

27% On target shareContext 32%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

57% Box shareContext 67%

7% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.29

15.80 Shots allowedContext 9.20

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

4.80 BlocksContext 3.00

4.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

64% Save rateContext 63%

47% PossessionIn forecast 44%

424 PassesContext 363

360 Accurate passesContext 292

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.77

12.30 FoulsContext 14.10

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Metz

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,169 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel608 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Metz	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar	13.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	608 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,169 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Metz Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

61P. Sy(G)

2M. Colin 4Urie-Michel Mboula 38S. Sané 39K. Kouao

20J. Deminguet 5J. Gbamin

7G. Tsitaishvili 10G. Hein 70B. Sarr

30M. Diallo

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 24F. Guilbert

13F. Coquelin

10M. Abline 8J. Lepenant 21M. Kaba 18F. Centonze

37I. Ganago

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Metz Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Metz-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nantes+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Metz · Home 0.69points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-8
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.77

Nantes · Away 0.75points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-7
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.58

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Metz	Nantes
Rennes	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 H
Toulouse	L 3–4 HL 0–4 A	D 2–2 A
Lens	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H	L 1–2 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A	D 0–0 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	L 0–1 H
Auxerre	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A	W 1–0 H
Lille	D 0–0 HL 1–6 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Angers	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 HL 1–4 A
Lyon	L 2–5 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Strasbourg	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	L 2–3 HL 0–1 A
Lorient	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Nice	W 2–1 H	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Marseille	L 0–3 H	W 2–0 A
LE Havre	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Monaco	L 2–5 A	L 1–3 AL 3–5 H
Paris FC	L 2–3 A	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Points	11 of 78 · 0.42 per game	17 of 75 · 0.68 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Metz wins1 draws1 Nantes wins

Goals per game1.40 – 0.60 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 40%

2 Nov 2025Nantes0–2Metz
3 Mar 2024Nantes0–2Metz
12 Nov 2023Metz3–1Nantes
27 Feb 2022Metz0–0Nantes
15 Aug 2021Nantes2–0Metz

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Metz	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.93	0.92
Conceded per game	2.22	1.73
Match goals	3.15	2.65	2.41
Over 1.5	74%	69%
Over 2.5	59%	46%	43%
Over 3.5	37%	27%
Both teams scored	48%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	19%	15%
Failed to score	44%	38%
Games	27	26

	Metz	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.00
Conceded per game	2.20	1.70
Match goals	2.90	2.70	2.41
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	43%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Metz	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.20
Corners conceded	4.96	5.60
Match total	8.96	8.80	9.10
Over 8.5	38% 10/26	60% 15/25
Over 9.5	23% 6/26	44% 11/25
Over 10.5	15% 4/26	40% 10/25
Cards
Cards	1.74	2.08
Opponent cards	1.41	2.46
Match total	3.15	4.54	3.99
Over 3.5	44% 12/27	69% 18/26
Over 4.5	22% 6/27	46% 12/26

	Metz	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.20
Corners conceded	4.56	4.10
Match total	8.56	7.30	9.10
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.60
Opponent cards	1.30	3.10
Match total	3.30	5.70	3.99
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 104 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.49league 3.70

Red cards0.27league 0.28

Cards 5+35%league 37%

Fouls23.9league 23.8

Penalties0.33league 0.37

Home wins41%league 48%

Metz4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

L7 Oct 23H · Nice0–10
D18 Aug 23H · Marseille2–24
L3 Apr 22H · Monaco1–20
D7 Nov 21A · Marseille0–04

Nantes9 with this referee

Record2-1-6 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1 Pens for · against2 · 2

L29 Oct 25H · Monaco3–53
W23 Feb 25H · Lens3–12
L24 Nov 24H · LE Havre0–22
L7 Apr 24H · Lyon1–32
L17 Feb 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.