Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris FC were slight favourites.
Paris FC were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris FC. Metz had 8.8 days of rest, Paris FC 8.9 and had to travel 278 km.
Away travel278 kmRest days8.8 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Metz31%
Draw27%
Paris FC42%
Metz35%
Draw27%
Paris FC38%
Metz31%
Draw27%
Paris FC42%
Metz25%
Draw25%
Paris FC50%
Metz31%
Draw26%
Paris FC42%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 88
Team strength
Metz
Paris FC
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
11
AttackIn forecast
46
17
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzParis FC
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
55%
Scored inContext
72%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
9.34
ShotsContext
11.21
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.66
31%
On target shareContext
33%
6.23
Shots in the boxContext
7.43
61%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.64
14.72
Shots allowedContext
12.07
5.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
3.52
BlocksContext
3.74
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
65%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
444
PassesContext
467
382
Accurate passesContext
398
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.17
FoulsContext
10.41
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.79
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
30%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.60
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
26%
On target shareContext
40%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
63%
Box shareContext
67%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.86
15.50
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.67
BlocksContext
4.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
67%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
426
PassesContext
399
361
Accurate passesContext
327
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.50
FoulsContext
9.30
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,299 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel278 km881 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 Apr | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 278 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,299 km | 881 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
61P. Sy(G)
4Urie-Michel Mboula
15T. Yegbe
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
5J. Gbamin
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
34Nathan Mbala
30M. Diallo
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
31Samir Sophian Chergui
42D. Coppola
14H. Traoré
7Alimami Gory
24L. Koleosho
23R. Matondo
10I. Kebbal
36C. Immobile
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Paris FC+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.71points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-8
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.64
Paris FC · Away
1.07points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-7-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Nantes | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Rennes | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Toulouse | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Lens | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Auxerre | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Lille | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A | L 2–4 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lyon | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 AL 2–3 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | W 4–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 15 of 84 · 0.54 per game | 32 of 84 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Metz wins0 draws1 Paris FC wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Paris FC3–2Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.83 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 52% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 62% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 28% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Metz | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 4.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 5.48 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 9.76 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 12/28 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 7/28 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 5/28 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.41 | 1.62 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.59 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 13/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Metz | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 6.90 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 11.30 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.66
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+38%league 35%
Fouls24.6league 23.8
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins41%league 48%
Metz5 with this referee
Record0-0-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L1 Mar 26H · Stade Brestois 290–12
- L28 Nov 25H · Rennes0–10
- L18 Feb 24A · Montpellier0–33
- L13 Aug 23A · Rennes1–52
- L6 Mar 22A · Saint Etienne0–14
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.6.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D29 Oct 25H · Lyon3–36
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz29 games · scored 26 · conceded 63
3
10
0-15
4
7
16-30
4
13
31-45
3
8
46-60
2
6
61-75
10
19
76-90
Paris FC29 games · scored 37 · conceded 45
6
3
0-15
7
8
16-30
5
8
31-45
4
9
46-60
5
4
61-75
10
13
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 5 · conceded 18
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
