Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 18). Absences weigh more on Metz. Metz had 5.1 days of rest, Rennes 6.1 and had to travel 585 km.
Away travel585 kmRest days5.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Metz26%
Draw26%
Rennes48%
Metz27%
Draw26%
Rennes47%
Metz27%
Draw26%
Rennes47%
Metz20%
Draw24%
Rennes55%
Metz26%
Draw26%
Rennes48%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 82
Team strength
Metz
Rennes
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
11
AttackIn forecast
63
17
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzRennes
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.77
2.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
62%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
8.46
ShotsContext
12.85
3.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.85
35%
On target shareContext
38%
6.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
63%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.85
Shots allowedContext
13.69
5.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.54
2.92
BlocksContext
4.75
3.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
65%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
434
PassesContext
455
372
Accurate passesContext
389
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.77
FoulsContext
11.38
12.15
Fouls sufferedContext
12.23
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.23
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.30
ShotsContext
13.70
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
41%
On target shareContext
37%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
62%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.70
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.10
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
67%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
435
PassesContext
449
372
Accurate passesContext
382
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.10
FoulsContext
12.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,565 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rennes
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel585 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 585 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,565 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
2M. Colin
97F. Ballo-Touré
8B. Traoré
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
14C. Sabaly
10G. Hein
23I. Sané
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rennes+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rennes · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Marseille | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | W 4–1 H |
| Angers | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Lyon | L 0–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 33 · 1.00 per game | 20 of 33 · 1.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Metz wins0 draws4 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 4 May 2024Metz2–3Rennes
- 13 Aug 2023Rennes5–1Metz
- 20 Mar 2022Rennes6–1Metz
- 17 Oct 2021Metz0–3Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.31 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.15 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 69% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 62% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 69% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Metz | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.92 | 5.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.54 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.46 | 9.61 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 3/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.69 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 2.62 | |
| Match total | 3.31 | 4.70 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Metz | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.30 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.81
Red cards0.23league 0.32
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls24.7league 24.2
Penalties0.30league 0.50
Home wins41%league 51%
Metz3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 Feb 24A · Montpellier0–33
- L13 Aug 23A · Rennes1–52
- L6 Mar 22A · Saint Etienne0–14
Rennes9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W10 May 25H · Nice2–01
- L25 Jan 25A · Monaco2–33
- D21 Sep 24H · Lens1–12
- D17 Dec 23A · Toulouse0–02
- W13 Aug 23H · Metz5–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz13 games · scored 14 · conceded 30
3
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
12
76-90
Rennes13 games · scored 23 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
10
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
