Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Toulouse were slight favourites.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Toulouse. Metz had 7.1 days of rest, Toulouse 7.8 and had to travel 710 km.
Away travel710 kmRest days7.1 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Metz26%
Draw29%
Toulouse45%
Metz27%
Draw26%
Toulouse46%
Metz26%
Draw29%
Toulouse45%
Metz21%
Draw28%
Toulouse52%
Metz26%
Draw29%
Toulouse45%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 31
Team strength
Metz
Toulouse
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
11
AttackIn forecast
45
17
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzToulouse
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
2.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
56%
Scored inContext
64%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
8.88
ShotsContext
12.76
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
31%
On target shareContext
34%
5.77
Shots in the boxContext
9.09
60%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.68
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.36
Shots allowedContext
10.64
5.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.42
3.33
BlocksContext
3.04
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
64%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
445
PassesContext
368
383
Accurate passesContext
300
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.16
FoulsContext
14.04
10.96
Fouls sufferedContext
11.52
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
50%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.30
ShotsContext
13.50
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
26%
On target shareContext
39%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
53%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.30
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.80
BlocksContext
2.00
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
64%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
448
PassesContext
407
386
Accurate passesContext
337
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.80
FoulsContext
14.00
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km558 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel710 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 710 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 558 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
2M. Colin
4Urie-Michel Mboula
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
20J. Deminguet
5J. Gbamin
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
70B. Sarr
34Nathan Mbala
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
19D. Sidibé
12W. Kamanzi
18Pape Diop
45A. Vossah
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
13J. Russell-Rowe
11S. Hidalgo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Toulouse-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.58
Toulouse · Away
1.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 3–6 H |
| Auxerre | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lille | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A | L 1–2 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Lyon | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Marseille | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 13 of 72 · 0.54 per game | 28 of 72 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Metz wins0 draws3 Toulouse wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 19 Oct 2025Toulouse4–0Metz
- 14 Jan 2024Metz0–1Toulouse
- 1 Oct 2023Toulouse3–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.24 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 3.12 | 2.48 | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 44% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 36% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Metz | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.08 | 4.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.96 | 9.56 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 9/24 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 5/24 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 4/24 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 2.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.36 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 3.12 | 4.52 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 11/25 | 76% 19/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 6/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Metz | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 9.40 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.06league 3.71
Red cards0.16league 0.27
Cards 5+19%league 36%
Fouls21.0league 23.9
Penalties0.35league 0.38
Home wins52%league 49%
Metz8 with this referee
Record3-0-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 4
Reds1
- L23 Nov 25A · Stade Brestois 292–33
- W2 Nov 25A · Nantes2–02
- L31 Aug 25A · Paris FC2–32
- L19 May 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- W10 Mar 24H · Clermont Foot1–01
Toulouse6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Jan 26H · Nice5–11
- L22 Nov 24A · Paris Saint Germain0–32
- L29 Sep 24H · Lyon1–22
- W28 Apr 24A · Lorient2–13
- L11 Feb 24H · Nantes1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz25 games · scored 22 · conceded 56
3
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
12
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
17
76-90
Toulouse25 games · scored 33 · conceded 29
4
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
11
6
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
