Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were clear favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Auxerre. Monaco had 8.8 days of rest, Auxerre 7.8 and had to travel 541 km.
Away travel541 kmRest days8.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Monaco61%
Draw23%
Auxerre16%
Monaco64%
Draw21%
Auxerre15%
Monaco62%
Draw23%
Auxerre16%
Monaco53%
Draw25%
Auxerre22%
Monaco61%
Draw23%
Auxerre17%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 88
Team strength
Monaco
Auxerre
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
45
AttackIn forecast
39
56
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoAuxerre
1.72
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.79
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
79%
Scored inContext
45%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
11.93
ShotsContext
10.14
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
35%
On target shareContext
30%
8.62
Shots in the boxContext
6.65
71%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.95
OffsidesContext
2.12
12.97
Shots allowedContext
11.34
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.34
3.66
BlocksContext
3.04
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
65%
Save rateContext
73%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
465
PassesContext
367
390
Accurate passesContext
295
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.45
FoulsContext
13.41
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.03
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
100%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.10
ShotsContext
9.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
42%
On target shareContext
29%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
78%
Box shareContext
67%
20%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.63
15.90
Shots allowedContext
11.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
5.20
BlocksContext
3.44
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
66%
Save rateContext
80%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
419
PassesContext
363
348
Accurate passesContext
288
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.10
FoulsContext
13.40
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,378 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel541 km633 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 Apr | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 541 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,378 km | 633 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
13C. Mawissa
23Aladji Bamba
4J. Teze
27K. Diatta
31Ansu Fati
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
24B. Okoh
20S. Diomandé
29M. Senaya
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
22F. Oppegård
19D. Namaso
28R. Faivre
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Auxerre+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.07points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-4
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 1.33
Auxerre · Away
0.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-8
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 1–4 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Marseille | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Lyon | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lens | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Nice | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Rennes | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A | L 0–3 HD 2–2 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Lorient | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 3–4 H |
| Points | 46 of 84 · 1.64 per game | 24 of 84 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Monaco wins0 draws0 Auxerre wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.40
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 13 Sep 2025Auxerre1–2Monaco
- 1 Feb 2025Monaco4–2Auxerre
- 14 Sep 2024Auxerre0–3Monaco
- 1 Feb 2023Monaco3–2Auxerre
- 28 Dec 2022Auxerre2–3Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.72 | 0.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 2.07 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 34% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 55% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Monaco | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 1.70 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 4.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.07 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 8.93 | 8.93 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 9/28 | 24% 7/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.34 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 2.76 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.93 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 16/29 | 79% 23/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 10/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Monaco | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 8.60 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.50 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 3.66
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+41%league 35%
Fouls24.0league 23.8
Penalties0.25league 0.36
Home wins40%league 48%
Monaco9 with this referee
Record4-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L5 Dec 25A · Stade Brestois 290–14
- L5 Apr 25A · Stade Brestois 291–22
- W15 Feb 25H · Nantes7–11
- W22 Nov 24H · Stade Brestois 293–22
- W5 Oct 24A · Rennes2–14
Auxerre6 with this referee
Record0-2-4
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D23 Nov 25H · Lyon0–01
- L27 Sep 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- L20 Apr 25A · Lille1–32
- D12 Feb 23A · Angers1–10
- L13 Nov 22A · Paris Saint Germain0–50
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco29 games · scored 50 · conceded 43
3
4
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
8
31-45
9
5
46-60
13
8
61-75
11
12
76-90
Auxerre29 games · scored 23 · conceded 37
4
4
0-15
3
8
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
11
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
6
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
8
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
