Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were clear favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 20). Monaco had ? days of rest, LE Havre ? and had to travel 849 km.
Away travel849 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Monaco70%
Draw19%
LE Havre11%
Monaco70%
Draw19%
LE Havre11%
Monaco70%
Draw19%
LE Havre11%
Monaco63%
Draw22%
LE Havre15%
Monaco70%
Draw19%
LE Havre11%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 61
Team strength
Monaco
LE Havre
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
45
AttackIn forecast
20
56
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoLE Havre
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.95
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.50
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
41%
On target shareContext
36%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
74%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.00
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.86
BlocksContext
3.75
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
74%
Save rateContext
61%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
457
PassesContext
380
379
Accurate passesContext
312
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.40
FoulsContext
11.10
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel849 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 849 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
12Caio Henrique
13C. Mawissa
3E. Dier
4J. Teze
6D. Zakaria
15M. Camara
10A. Golovin
18T. Minamino
11M. Akliouche
14M. Biereth
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
15A. Seko
93A. Sangante
6É. Youté
8Y. Kechta
14R. Ndiaye
26S. Ebonog
21Y. Namli
45I. Soumaré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- LE Havre+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
No home games yet this season.
LE Havre · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Monaco wins3 draws0 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 26 Apr 2025LE Havre1–1Monaco
- 22 Sep 2024Monaco3–1LE Havre
- 4 Feb 2024Monaco1–1LE Havre
- 11 Nov 2023LE Havre0–0Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Monaco | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 17.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Monaco | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.22 | 17.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 5.00
Red cards0.44league 0.50
Cards 5+46%league 100%
Fouls23.9league 25.5
Penalties0.36league 0.00
Home wins39%league 50%
Monaco9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds4
- W21 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 292–04
- D1 Mar 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–00
- L15 Dec 23H · Lyon0–11
- W20 Aug 23H · Strasbourg3–02
- W15 Jan 23H · Ajaccio7–11
LE HavreNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
MonacoLE HavreMonaco10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
2
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
