Monaco
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Monaco69.9%fair odds 1.43
Draw19.0%fair odds 5.28
LE Havre11.2%fair odds 8.97
Expected goals2.23 – 0.78total 3.01
Likeliest score2–012.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
LE Havre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Monaco ↓ · LE Havre → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Monaco goals, columns LE Havre goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.3%8.15
- 1–010.6%9.48
- 2–19.6%10.46
- 3–09.1%10.97
- 1–19.0%11.07
- 3–17.1%14.08
- 0–05.4%18.55
- 4–05.1%19.69
- 4–14.0%25.27
- 2–23.7%26.84
Winning margin
25.5%
Monaco by 3+
fair 3.92
21.1%
Monaco by 2
fair 4.74
23.3%
Monaco by 1
fair 4.29
19.0%
Draw
fair 5.28
7.9%
LE Havre by 1
fair 12.73
2.6%
LE Havre by 2
fair 38.76
0.7%
LE Havre by 3+
fair 139.75
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Monaco goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
LE Havre goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 69.9% | 69.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 19.0% | 18.9% | +0.0 pp |
| LE Havre win | 11.2% | 11.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 58.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.8% | 49.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Monaco | 2.23 | 2.24 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals LE Havre | 0.78 | 0.80 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Monaco win69.9%1.43
- Draw19.0%5.28
- LE Havre win11.2%8.97
- Double chance Monaco or draw88.8%1.13
- Double chance Monaco or LE Havre81.0%1.23
- Double chance LE Havre or draw30.1%3.32
- Draw no bet Monaco86.2%1.16
- Draw no bet LE Havre13.8%7.27
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.580.7%1.24
- Over 2.557.9%1.73
- Over 3.535.5%2.82
- Over 4.518.6%5.37
- Under 1.519.3%5.17
- Under 2.542.1%2.37
- Under 3.564.5%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes48.8%2.05
- No51.2%1.95
- Yes and over 2.539.7%2.52
- Monaco win and yes29.4%3.40
- Draw and yes13.6%7.37
- LE Havre win and yes5.8%17.30
Team goals
- Monaco over 0.589.2%1.12
- Monaco over 1.565.2%1.53
- Monaco over 2.538.5%2.60
- LE Havre over 0.554.1%1.85
- LE Havre over 1.518.4%5.44
- LE Havre over 2.54.5%22.47
- Monaco clean sheet45.9%2.18
- LE Havre clean sheet10.8%9.29
- Monaco win to nil40.5%2.47
- LE Havre win to nil5.4%18.61
Handicap
- Monaco −1.546.6%2.15
- Monaco −2.525.5%3.92
- LE Havre +1.553.4%1.87
- LE Havre +2.574.5%1.34
- LE Havre −1.53.3%30.34
- Monaco +1.596.7%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result35.2%
1X2 Brier0.638
Over 2.5 called right0.0%
BTTS called right0.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.4% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 1 | 40.6% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.