Monaco vs Lorient – 16 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 18 Fri, Jan 16 · 18:00 Stade Louis-II, Monaco

Monaco 9th · 23 pts · 17 played LWLLL

1–3Full time

Lorient 12th · 19 pts · 17 played DWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Monaco were slight favourites.

Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 25). Monaco had 13.1 days of rest, Lorient 12.1 and had to travel 948 km.

Away travel948 kmRest days13.1 · 12.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Monaco60%

Draw23%

Lorient17%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.91

Monaco59%

Draw23%

Lorient18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Monaco59%

Draw23%

Lorient17%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.91

Monaco52%

Draw25%

Lorient22%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.02

Monaco60%

Draw23%

Lorient17%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.94

Over 2.5 53% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Monaco)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 100

Team strength

Monaco

Lorient

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

45 AttackIn forecast 28

56 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Monaco

Lorient

1.59 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

1.76 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

76% Scored inContext 65%

12% Clean sheetsContext 18%

12.00 ShotsContext 11.71

3.76 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

31% On target shareContext 32%

8.19 Shots in the boxContext 7.71

68% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 10%

3.15 OffsidesContext 2.64

13.12 Shots allowedContext 9.41

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.82

3.76 BlocksContext 2.67

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

63% Save rateContext 60%

53% PossessionIn forecast 43%

468 PassesContext 402

393 Accurate passesContext 340

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.53 FoulsContext 10.12

11.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.94

2.35 Yellow cardsContext 1.94

0.24 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.90 ShotsContext 12.00

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

31% On target shareContext 30%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

68% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 9%

3.71 OffsidesContext 2.57

15.10 Shots allowedContext 8.70

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.20 BlocksContext 2.40

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

70% Save rateContext 66%

48% PossessionIn forecast 43%

413 PassesContext 393

339 Accurate passesContext 331

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.90 FoulsContext 8.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.40 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Monaco

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest12.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel948 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Monaco	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Jan	12.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	948 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Monaco Confirmed XI

4-2-2-2

16P. Köhn(G)

12Caio Henrique 25W. Faes 3E. Dier 20K. Ouattara

4J. Teze 6D. Zakaria

10A. Golovin 11M. Akliouche

9F. Balogun 14M. Biereth

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

2Igor Silva 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 8Noah Cadiou 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

12B. Dieng

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Monaco Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Monaco+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lorient-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Monaco · Home 1.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-3
Scored: 1.89
Conceded: 1.67

Lorient · Away 0.38points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-5
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Monaco	Lorient
Lyon	L 1–3 H	W 1–0 H
Marseille	L 0–1 A	L 0–4 A
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–1 A	D 3–3 H
Paris Saint Germain	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Rennes	L 1–4 A	W 4–0 H
Lens	L 1–4 H	L 0–3 A
Paris FC	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
Nantes	W 5–3 A	D 1–1 A
Toulouse	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Angers	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Nice	D 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
Metz	W 5–2 H	D 1–1 H
Auxerre	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Strasbourg	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 A
Lille	L 0–1 A	L 1–7 H
LE Havre	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	23 of 48 · 1.44 per game	16 of 48 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Monaco wins4 draws2 Lorient wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.57 Over 2.571% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 29%

27 Sep 2025Lorient3–1Monaco
17 Mar 2024Monaco2–2Lorient
17 Sep 2023Lorient2–2Monaco
16 Apr 2023Monaco3–1Lorient
11 Jan 2023Lorient2–2Monaco
13 Feb 2022Monaco0–0Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Monaco	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.59	1.18
Conceded per game	1.76	1.71
Match goals	3.35	2.88	2.79
Over 1.5	65%	82%
Over 2.5	59%	41%	53%
Over 3.5	53%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	53%	51%
Clean sheets	12%	18%
Failed to score	24%	35%
Games	17	17

	Monaco	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.30
Match goals	2.90	2.40	2.79
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Monaco	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.65	3.40
Corners conceded	3.94	4.53
Match total	8.59	7.93	9.37
Over 8.5	53% 9/17	33% 5/15
Over 9.5	41% 7/17	27% 4/15
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	20% 3/15
Cards
Cards	2.65	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.12
Match total	4.65	4.12	4.04
Over 3.5	65% 11/17	59% 10/17
Over 4.5	47% 8/17	41% 7/17

	Monaco	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	3.78
Corners conceded	3.20	4.78
Match total	8.10	8.56	9.37
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	4.70	2.90	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.55league 3.67

Red cards0.27league 0.35

Cards 5+39%league 36%

Fouls24.7league 24.1

Penalties0.42league 0.46

Home wins44%league 50%

Monaco10 with this referee

Record3-4-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 5 Reds5

D5 Oct 25H · Nice2–21
L24 Aug 25A · Lille0–12
W15 Mar 25A · Angers2–02
D1 Sep 24H · Lens1–11
D27 Jan 24A · Marseille2–24

Lorient8 with this referee

Record2-4-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 0

D29 Oct 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–10
L24 Feb 24H · Nantes0–10
W27 Aug 23H · Lille4–12
D9 Apr 23H · Marseille0–00
D5 Feb 23H · Angers0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.