Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Monaco. Monaco had 14.2 days of rest, Marseille 14.1 and had to travel 172 km.
Away travel172 kmRest days14.2 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Monaco56%
Draw24%
Marseille20%
Monaco45%
Draw27%
Marseille28%
Monaco55%
Draw24%
Marseille20%
Monaco49%
Draw26%
Marseille25%
Monaco57%
Draw24%
Marseille19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 138
Team strength
Monaco
Marseille
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
45
AttackIn forecast
48
56
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoMarseille
1.74
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
78%
Scored inContext
78%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.89
ShotsContext
13.85
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
35%
On target shareContext
38%
8.32
Shots in the boxContext
8.59
70%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.37
12.78
Shots allowedContext
10.19
4.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
3.67
BlocksContext
2.75
3.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
65%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
462
PassesContext
548
387
Accurate passesContext
487
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.63
FoulsContext
12.33
11.15
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.15
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.71
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
43%
On target shareContext
34%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
77%
Box shareContext
57%
21%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.14
14.90
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.90
BlocksContext
2.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
72%
Save rateContext
59%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
403
PassesContext
491
329
Accurate passesContext
425
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.60
FoulsContext
13.20
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel172 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 172 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
13C. Mawissa
15M. Camara
28M. Coulibaly
4J. Teze
10A. Golovin
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
4C. Egan-Riley
28B. Pavard
14Igor Paixão
23P. Højbjerg
27Q. Timber
22T. Weah
20H. Traorè
9A. Gouiri
17P. Aubameyang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Marseille-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-4
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 1.36
Marseille · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-6
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H |
| Angers | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Lens | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Nantes | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Nice | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 5–1 A |
| Rennes | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | W 6–2 H |
| Lorient | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 46 of 78 · 1.77 per game | 46 of 78 · 1.77 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Monaco wins2 draws4 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.44
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 14 Dec 2025Marseille1–0Monaco
- 12 Apr 2025Monaco3–0Marseille
- 1 Dec 2024Marseille2–1Monaco
- 27 Jan 2024Marseille2–2Monaco
- 30 Sep 2023Monaco3–2Marseille
- 28 Jan 2023Marseille1–1Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.74 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 63% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 48% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Monaco | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.19 | 3.65 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.38 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 15/27 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 12/27 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 9/27 | 19% 5/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.22 | 4.11 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 15/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 10/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Monaco | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.10 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 138 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.69
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls23.0league 23.8
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins39%league 48%
Monaco14 with this referee
Record8-2-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W29 Nov 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–05
- D26 Apr 25A · LE Havre1–10
- L7 Feb 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–40
- L1 Dec 24A · Marseille1–21
- W17 Aug 24H · Saint Etienne1–01
Marseille11 with this referee
Record4-2-5
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W4 Oct 25A · Metz3–00
- L16 Mar 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–30
- W1 Dec 24H · Monaco2–10
- W20 Oct 24A · Montpellier5–03
- D21 Apr 24A · Toulouse2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco27 games · scored 47 · conceded 38
3
2
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
8
31-45
8
5
46-60
12
7
61-75
11
11
76-90
Marseille27 games · scored 54 · conceded 35
6
5
0-15
10
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
5
61-75
15
13
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
7
3
61-75
3
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
3
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
