Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were clear favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Monaco had 7.8 days of rest, Metz 7 and had to travel 606 km.
Away travel606 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Monaco73%
Draw17%
Metz10%
Monaco74%
Draw17%
Metz9%
Monaco74%
Draw17%
Metz9%
Monaco66%
Draw20%
Metz13%
Monaco73%
Draw17%
Metz10%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 73
Team strength
Monaco
Metz
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
45
AttackIn forecast
11
56
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoMetz
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
75%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.75
ShotsContext
9.00
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
26%
On target shareContext
25%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
77%
Box shareContext
71%
19%
ConversionContext
8%
3.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
2.75
BlocksContext
2.67
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
70%
Save rateContext
68%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
526
PassesContext
458
445
Accurate passesContext
399
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.50
FoulsContext
12.25
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.25
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
8.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
36%
On target shareContext
29%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
69%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.60
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.44
BlocksContext
3.67
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
65%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
482
PassesContext
347
406
Accurate passesContext
275
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.50
FoulsContext
12.50
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,083 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel606 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 606 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,083 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
20K. Ouattara
5J. Kehrer
3E. Dier
4J. Teze
18T. Minamino
23Aladji Bamba
15M. Camara
11M. Akliouche
29P. Brunner
14M. Biereth
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
2M. Colin
97F. Ballo-Touré
20J. Deminguet
21B. Stambouli
39K. Kouao
14C. Sabaly
10G. Hein
30M. Diallo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Metz+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Metz · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Monaco wins0 draws0 Metz wins
Goals per game3.25 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 30 Mar 2024Metz2–5Monaco
- 22 Oct 2023Monaco2–1Metz
- 3 Apr 2022Metz1–2Monaco
- 5 Dec 2021Monaco4–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.75 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Monaco | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.75 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.00 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 2.50 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Monaco | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.60 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.54
Red cards0.26league 0.37
Cards 5+29%league 37%
Fouls24.4league 23.7
Penalties0.22league 0.51
Home wins47%league 66%
Monaco10 with this referee
Record7-1-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W7 Dec 24H · Toulouse2–02
- W22 Sep 24H · LE Havre3–11
- W24 Aug 24A · Lyon2–03
- W12 May 24A · Montpellier2–01
- W7 Apr 24H · Rennes1–03
Metz5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L28 Apr 24H · Lille1–21
- L27 Jan 24A · Nice0–11
- W16 Sep 23A · Lens1–02
- D30 Oct 21H · Saint Etienne1–10
- L3 Oct 21A · Angers2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco4 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Metz4 games · scored 3 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
6
61-75
4
3
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
