Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were clear favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Monaco had 5.3 days of rest, Nantes 6 and had to travel 799 km.
Away travel799 kmRest days5.3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Monaco61%
Draw24%
Nantes15%
Monaco65%
Draw21%
Nantes14%
Monaco61%
Draw24%
Nantes15%
Monaco54%
Draw27%
Nantes20%
Monaco61%
Draw24%
Nantes15%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 91
Team strength
Monaco
Nantes
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
45
AttackIn forecast
24
56
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoNantes
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.76
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
71%
Scored inContext
62%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.90
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.16
32%
On target shareContext
29%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.05
68%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
3.13
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.62
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.48
BlocksContext
4.47
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
64%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
464
PassesContext
365
390
Accurate passesContext
294
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.00
FoulsContext
11.95
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
50%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
9.60
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
62%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
3.67
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.50
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.10
BlocksContext
3.63
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
63%
Save rateContext
61%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
424
PassesContext
371
352
Accurate passesContext
299
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.20
FoulsContext
13.10
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nantes
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel799 km298 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Nantes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 799 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 26 km | 298 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
12Caio Henrique
25W. Faes
5J. Kehrer
2Vanderson
15M. Camara
6D. Zakaria
24S. Adingra
10A. Golovin
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
4L. Sylla
2Ali Yusuf
6C. Awaziem
27D. Machado
21M. Kaba
13F. Coquelin
18F. Centonze
20R. Cabella
17D. Assoumani
10M. Abline
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nantes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Nantes+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-4
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.64
Nantes · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| Rennes | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A | D 2–2 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lorient | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Lyon | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lens | L 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 25 of 60 · 1.25 per game | 14 of 60 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Monaco wins5 draws0 Nantes wins
Goals per game3.11 – 1.44
Over 2.578%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 29 Oct 2025Nantes3–5Monaco
- 15 Feb 2025Monaco7–1Nantes
- 10 Jan 2025Nantes2–2Monaco
- 19 May 2024Monaco4–0Nantes
- 25 Aug 2023Nantes3–3Monaco
- 9 Apr 2023Nantes2–2Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.76 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.67 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 48% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 52% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 38% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Monaco | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 8.95 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.05 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.24 | 4.38 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Monaco | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 2.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 7.45 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.70 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.12league 3.64
Red cards0.22league 0.31
Cards 5+22%league 36%
Fouls20.6league 24.2
Penalties0.36league 0.41
Home wins48%league 49%
Monaco9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L1 Nov 25H · Paris FC0–13
- D19 Apr 25H · Strasbourg0–02
- W28 Feb 25H · Reims3–00
- D18 Oct 24H · Lille0–02
- W30 Mar 24A · Metz5–20
Nantes8 with this referee
Record1-0-7
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 6
Reds1
- L30 Mar 25A · LE Havre2–32
- W8 Dec 24H · Rennes1–01
- L12 May 24H · Lille1–24
- L3 Mar 24H · Metz0–23
- L27 May 23A · Lille1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco21 games · scored 32 · conceded 33
3
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
7
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
11
76-90
Nantes21 games · scored 19 · conceded 37
3
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
13
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
