Monaco vs Nice – 5 Oct 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 5 · 16:15 Stade Louis-II, Monaco

Monaco 5th · 12 pts · 6 played LWWWL

2–2Full time

Nice 12th · 7 pts · 6 played WLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Monaco were slight favourites.

Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Monaco had 8 days of rest, Nice 2.9 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days8 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 3

Monaco52%

Draw25%

Nice23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.06

Monaco55%

Draw25%

Nice21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Monaco55%

Draw25%

Nice21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.00

Monaco45%

Draw26%

Nice29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.19

Monaco52%

Draw25%

Nice23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.07

Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Monaco)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 92

Team strength

Monaco

Nice

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

45 AttackIn forecast 26

56 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Monaco

Nice

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.77 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

83% Scored inContext 83%

0% Clean sheetsContext 17%

10.50 ShotsContext 13.33

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

29% On target shareContext 35%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

70% Box shareContext 60%

22% ConversionContext 9%

2.80 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.83 Shots allowedContext 12.00

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.33 BlocksContext 3.17

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

62% Save rateContext 64%

55% PossessionIn forecast 55%

510 PassesContext 473

437 Accurate passesContext 408

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.67 FoulsContext 12.83

10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 14.17

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.90 ShotsContext 11.70

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

34% On target shareContext 30%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

67% Box shareContext 59%

19% ConversionContext 8%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.14

13.70 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.80 BlocksContext 4.20

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 63%

52% PossessionIn forecast 50%

478 PassesContext 441

408 Accurate passesContext 372

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.70 FoulsContext 12.40

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Monaco

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,895 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel13 km3,602 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Monaco	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 33
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Sep	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,895 km	3,602 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	13.1	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Monaco Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16P. Köhn(G)

20K. Ouattara 22M. Salisu 3E. Dier 27K. Diatta

28M. Coulibaly 4J. Teze

18T. Minamino 31Ansu Fati 11M. Akliouche

14M. Biereth

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

3-4-3

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 64M. Bombito 33A. Mendy

2A. Abdi 24C. Vanhoutte 6H. Boudaoui 92J. Clauss

10S. Diop 9T. Moffi 25M. Cho

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Monaco Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Monaco-2.3 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Nice+1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Monaco · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.67
Conceded: 1.67

Nice · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Monaco	Nice
Auxerre	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 H
LE Havre	W 3–1 H	L 1–3 A
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Monaco wins1 draws3 Nice wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.38 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

29 Mar 2025Monaco2–1Nice
27 Oct 2024Nice2–1Monaco
11 Feb 2024Nice2–3Monaco
22 Sep 2023Monaco0–1Nice
26 Feb 2023Monaco0–3Nice
4 Sep 2022Nice0–1Monaco

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Monaco	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	1.17
Conceded per game	1.67	1.67
Match goals	4.00	2.83	2.79
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	83%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	67%	50%
Both teams scored	83%	67%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	17%	17%
Games	6	6

	Monaco	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	1.13
Conceded per game	1.67	1.75
Match goals	4.00	2.88	2.79
Over 1.5	83%	75%
Over 2.5	83%	63%	53%
Over 3.5	67%	38%
Both teams scored	83%	75%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	17%	13%
Games	6	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Monaco	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.00
Corners conceded	4.33	3.80
Match total	9.33	9.80	9.58
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.33
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	3.83	3.83	4.15
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6

	Monaco	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.22
Corners conceded	4.30	4.22
Match total	9.10	9.44	9.58
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	4.10	3.90	4.15
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 92 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.78

Red cards0.26league 0.34

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls25.1league 24.7

Penalties0.40league 0.47

Home wins45%league 56%

Monaco9 with this referee

Record3-3-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 4 Reds5

L24 Aug 25A · Lille0–12
W15 Mar 25A · Angers2–02
D1 Sep 24H · Lens1–11
D27 Jan 24A · Marseille2–24
W2 Sep 23H · Lens3–04

Nice10 with this referee

Record7-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds2

W25 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain3–11
W23 Feb 25H · Montpellier2–01
W11 Jan 25A · Reims4–22
D19 May 24A · Lille2–23
W6 May 23H · Rennes2–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.