Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were clear favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Monaco had 2.9 days of rest, Paris FC 2.9 and had to travel 689 km.
Away travel689 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Monaco74%
Draw17%
Paris FC10%
Monaco74%
Draw17%
Paris FC9%
Monaco75%
Draw16%
Paris FC9%
Monaco67%
Draw20%
Paris FC14%
Monaco73%
Draw17%
Paris FC10%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 85
Team strength
Monaco
Paris FC
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
45
AttackIn forecast
46
56
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoParis FC
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
72%
Box shareContext
65%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.90
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.90
BlocksContext
3.67
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
60%
Save rateContext
55%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
494
PassesContext
526
420
Accurate passesContext
462
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.90
FoulsContext
11.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.70
ShotsContext
13.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
34%
On target shareContext
34%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
69%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.56
13.80
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.50
BlocksContext
3.67
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
65%
Save rateContext
55%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
463
PassesContext
526
392
Accurate passesContext
462
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.90
FoulsContext
11.10
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,598 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Paris FC
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel689 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 2.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 689 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,598 km | 358 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
12Caio Henrique
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
20K. Ouattara
28M. Coulibaly
4J. Teze
27K. Diatta
10A. Golovin
11M. Akliouche
14M. Biereth
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
2T. Ollila
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
31Samir Sophian Chergui
17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou
27M. Simon
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
11J. Krasso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Paris FC+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 2.80
- Conceded
- 1.40
Paris FC · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | W 5–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lorient | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Monaco | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.50 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.80 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Monaco | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.50 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.80 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.16league 3.88
Red cards0.21league 0.30
Cards 5+22%league 38%
Fouls20.9league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.51
Home wins51%league 53%
Monaco8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D19 Apr 25H · Strasbourg0–02
- W28 Feb 25H · Reims3–00
- D18 Oct 24H · Lille0–02
- W30 Mar 24A · Metz5–20
- W11 Feb 24A · Nice3–24
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
6
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
