Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Monaco
8th · 20 pts · 13 played
WWLLL
1–0Full time
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 30 pts · 13 played
WDWWW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 50). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Monaco had 6.9 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 6.8 and had to travel 689 km.
Away travel689 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Monaco15%
Draw21%
Paris Saint Germain64%
Monaco16%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain62%
Monaco15%
Draw21%
Paris Saint Germain64%
Monaco11%
Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain71%
Monaco16%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain62%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 127
Team strength
MonacoParis Saint Germain
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
45
AttackIn forecast
91
56
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoParis Saint Germain
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
1.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
85%
Scored inContext
92%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
54%
12.38
ShotsContext
17.08
3.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.31
30%
On target shareContext
37%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.46
71%
Box shareContext
55%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.69
Shots allowedContext
8.62
4.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.18
4.08
BlocksContext
2.80
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
57%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
72%
491
PassesContext
750
417
Accurate passesContext
691
85%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.69
FoulsContext
9.85
11.46
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.23
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.92
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.30
ShotsContext
18.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
32%
On target shareContext
37%
10.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
75%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.90
Shots allowedContext
8.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
5.00
BlocksContext
2.00
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
63%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
458
PassesContext
715
384
Accurate passesContext
657
84%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.90
FoulsContext
9.60
12.89
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,709 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Paris Saint Germain
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel689 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 6.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 689 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,709 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
12Caio Henrique
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
2Vanderson
4J. Teze
15M. Camara
10A. Golovin
18T. Minamino
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
5Marquinhos
33W. Zaïre-Emery
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
24S. Mayulu
19K. Lee
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Paris Saint Germain-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.71
Paris Saint Germain · Away
2.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 1–4 H | W 2–0 H |
| Nantes | W 5–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | W 6–3 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lorient | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game | 24 of 30 · 2.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Monaco wins2 draws4 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 7 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain4–1Monaco
- 18 Dec 2024Monaco2–4Paris Saint Germain
- 1 Mar 2024Monaco0–0Paris Saint Germain
- 24 Nov 2023Paris Saint Germain5–2Monaco
- 11 Feb 2023Monaco3–1Paris Saint Germain
- 28 Aug 2022Paris Saint Germain1–1Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.92 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 3.85 | 2.92 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 38% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 62% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 54% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Monaco | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.46 | 5.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 3.27 | |
| Match total | 8.84 | 8.63 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 9% 1/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 1.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 1.62 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 2.85 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 5/13 | 8% 1/13 | |
| Monaco | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.23 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.60 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 3.78
Red cards0.24league 0.31
Cards 5+28%league 37%
Fouls23.1league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.50
Home wins39%league 51%
Monaco13 with this referee
Record7-2-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D26 Apr 25A · LE Havre1–10
- L7 Feb 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–40
- L1 Dec 24A · Marseille1–21
- W17 Aug 24H · Saint Etienne1–01
- W24 Apr 24H · Lille1–01
Paris Saint Germain13 with this referee
Record8-3-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds3
- D17 Oct 25H · Strasbourg3–32
- W16 Mar 25H · Marseille3–11
- W7 Feb 25H · Monaco4–11
- W14 Sep 24H · Stade Brestois 293–12
- D28 Jan 24H · Stade Brestois 292–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco13 games · scored 25 · conceded 25
3
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Paris Saint Germain13 games · scored 27 · conceded 11
5
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 28 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
5
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
