Monaco vs Strasbourg – 31 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 31 · 16:15 Stade Louis-II, Monaco

Monaco 11th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

3–2Full time

Strasbourg 5th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Monaco were slight favourites.

Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 48). Monaco had 6.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 7 and had to travel 540 km.

Away travel540 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Monaco50%

Draw25%

Strasbourg24%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.11

Monaco50%

Draw26%

Strasbourg24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Monaco50%

Draw25%

Strasbourg24%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.11

Monaco43%

Draw27%

Strasbourg31%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.24

Monaco50%

Draw26%

Strasbourg24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Monaco)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 101

Team strength

Monaco

Strasbourg

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

45 AttackIn forecast 40

56 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Monaco

Strasbourg

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.30

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 100%

9.00 ShotsContext 12.00

2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

22% On target shareContext 33%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

67% Box shareContext 52%

17% ConversionContext 8%

— OffsidesContext 2.50

11.50 Shots allowedContext 5.50

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

2.50 BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

75% Save rateContext 100%

62% PossessionIn forecast 56%

573 PassesContext 514

488 Accurate passesContext 458

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.07

9.00 FoulsContext 12.00

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.00 ShotsContext 11.60

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

41% On target shareContext 36%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

72% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.13

9.90 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.75 BlocksContext 5.29

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

73% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 54%

476 PassesContext 509

397 Accurate passesContext 449

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.99 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.40 FoulsContext 11.40

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Monaco

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,659 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Strasbourg

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel540 km263 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Monaco	Strasbourg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	540 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,659 km	263 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13.2	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Monaco Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Hrádecký(G)

12Caio Henrique 13C. Mawissa 3E. Dier 4J. Teze

6D. Zakaria 15M. Camara

10A. Golovin 14M. Biereth 11M. Akliouche

9F. Balogun

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

39M. Penders(G)

6I. Doukouré 23M. Sarr 24L. Høgsberg

7Diego Moreira 83R. Luis 17M. Amougou 42A. Ouattara

32V. Barco 80F. Lemaréchal

9J. Panichelli

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Monaco Absences are shown before kick-off

Strasbourg Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Monaco+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Strasbourg+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Monaco · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 1.00

Strasbourg · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Monaco wins2 draws1 Strasbourg wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.88 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

19 Apr 2025Monaco0–0Strasbourg
9 Nov 2024Strasbourg1–3Monaco
10 Mar 2024Strasbourg0–1Monaco
20 Aug 2023Monaco3–0Strasbourg
2 Apr 2023Monaco4–3Strasbourg
6 Aug 2022Strasbourg1–2Monaco

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Monaco	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.50	1.00	2.80
Over 1.5	50%	0%
Over 2.5	50%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Monaco	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.50	1.00	2.80
Over 1.5	50%	0%
Over 2.5	50%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Monaco	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	4.50
Match total	9.00	9.50	10.05
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	4.00	3.76
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2

	Monaco	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.70
Corners conceded	4.10	4.50
Match total	9.00	9.20	10.05
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.40	4.10	3.76
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29league 3.35

Red cards0.20league 0.26

Cards 5+48%league 35%

Fouls24.8league 23.2

Penalties0.38league 0.48

Home wins52%league 61%

Monaco13 with this referee

Record4-3-6 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5 Pens for · against3 · 3

W10 May 25H · Lyon2–02
W12 Apr 25H · Marseille3–02
L22 Feb 25A · Lille1–22
L18 Feb 24H · Toulouse1–21
L24 Nov 23A · Paris Saint Germain2–51

Strasbourg5 with this referee

Record4-0-1 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

W26 Apr 25H · Saint Etienne3–11
W12 Jan 25A · Toulouse2–14
L24 Nov 24A · Nice1–20
W27 Aug 23H · Toulouse2–01
W7 May 23A · Nantes2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.