Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 40). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Monaco had 7 days of rest, Toulouse 6.1 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Monaco51%
Draw26%
Toulouse23%
Monaco53%
Draw25%
Toulouse22%
Monaco54%
Draw25%
Toulouse21%
Monaco44%
Draw27%
Toulouse29%
Monaco51%
Draw25%
Toulouse24%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Monaco
Toulouse
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
45
AttackIn forecast
45
56
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoToulouse
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
88%
Scored inContext
88%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.75
ShotsContext
12.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
30%
On target shareContext
35%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.86
69%
Box shareContext
72%
18%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.75
Shots allowedContext
11.88
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.13
4.00
BlocksContext
4.86
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
61%
Save rateContext
59%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
517
PassesContext
330
443
Accurate passesContext
268
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.25
FoulsContext
14.13
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.13
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
33%
On target shareContext
40%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.22
70%
Box shareContext
77%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
4.50
BlocksContext
4.89
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
65%
Save rateContext
58%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
462
PassesContext
344
393
Accurate passesContext
280
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.40
FoulsContext
13.70
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,492 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,492 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
13C. Mawissa
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
20K. Ouattara
10A. Golovin
28M. Coulibaly
27K. Diatta
31Ansu Fati
18T. Minamino
9F. Balogun
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
17A. Francis
23C. Cásseres
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
9F. Magri
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-2.1 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Toulouse+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Toulouse · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Monaco wins1 draws2 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 7 Mar 2025Toulouse1–1Monaco
- 7 Dec 2024Monaco2–0Toulouse
- 18 Feb 2024Monaco1–2Toulouse
- 20 Dec 2023Toulouse1–2Monaco
- 3 Jun 2023Monaco1–2Toulouse
- 6 Nov 2022Toulouse0–2Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 3.38 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Monaco | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 3.38 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.88 | |
| Match total | 10.01 | 9.88 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 4.26 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Monaco | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.50 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.73
Red cards0.00league 0.31
Cards 5+0%league 35%
Fouls29.0league 24.4
Penalties0.25league 0.54
Home wins50%league 51%
MonacoNo previous matches with this referee.
ToulouseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco8 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Toulouse8 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
5
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
4
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
