Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were clear favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 35). Toulouse were without R. Nicolaisen. Monaco had 22 days of rest, Toulouse 21 and had to travel 481 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel481 kmRest days22 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Monaco61%
Draw21%
Toulouse18%
Monaco59%
Draw22%
Toulouse19%
Monaco61%
Draw21%
Toulouse18%
Monaco54%
Draw23%
Toulouse24%
Monaco62%
Draw20%
Toulouse18%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
20°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 74%
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 81
Team strength
Monaco
Toulouse
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
45
AttackIn forecast
45
56
DefenceIn forecast
49
92
Form indexContext
26
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoToulouse
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
14.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
45%
On target shareContext
31%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
61%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.80
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.80
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.40
BlocksContext
4.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
82%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
445
PassesContext
502
384
Accurate passesContext
433
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.00
FoulsContext
16.60
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
40%
On target shareContext
33%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
61%
Box shareContext
61%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.40
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.89
BlocksContext
5.13
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
71%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
479
PassesContext
396
411
Accurate passesContext
335
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.10
FoulsContext
15.20
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
WWWDW
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 13 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +6.4 vs expected
Toulouse
LDLDW
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 26 · 5 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Sep | 21Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
15E. Dier
72S. Sané
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
8M. Camara
7M. Detourbet
10A. Golovin
37E. Diop
11M. Abline
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
3M. McKenzie
5S. Koumbassa
22R. Messali
6A. Vossah
23C. Cásseres
37Ilyas Azizi
20C. Tengstedt
8T. Jørgensen
13J. Russell-Rowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −10.4% · Defence line −2.1% of weighted minutes
- MID M. Coulibaly Rotation 6.70 Att −3.5% Def −1.7%
- ATT Ansu Fati Rotation 6.76 Att −4.0%
- ATT P. Brunner Rotation 7.12 Att −2.1%
- MID S. Idumbo Rotation 6.83 Att −0.8% Def −0.4%
Toulouse
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −1.2% · Defence line −11.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF R. Nicolaisen Starter 6.76 Def −11.8%
- ATT Julián Vignolo Rotation 6.75 Att −1.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Toulouse-0.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Toulouse · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Monaco wins2 draws2 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 0%
- 25 Apr 2026Toulouse2–2Monaco
- 25 Oct 2025Monaco1–0Toulouse
- 7 Mar 2025Toulouse1–1Monaco
- 7 Dec 2024Monaco2–0Toulouse
- 18 Feb 2024Monaco1–2Toulouse
- 20 Dec 2023Toulouse1–2Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Monaco | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 9.60 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Monaco | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.80 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.13
Red cards0.37league 0.15
Cards 5+38%league 26%
Fouls23.7league 24.1
Penalties0.32league 0.28
Home wins42%league 43%
Monaco14 with this referee
Record9-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds5
- W2 May 26A · Metz2–12
- W6 Mar 26A · Paris Saint Germain3–13
- W31 Jan 26H · Rennes4–01
- L27 Sep 25A · Lorient1–33
- W16 Aug 25H · LE Havre3–10
Toulouse2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Apr 24H · Strasbourg0–02
- D7 Oct 22A · Lyon1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco5 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Toulouse5 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
