Monza
Attack+6%
Defense risk−14%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Cagliari were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Monza were without L. Lucchesi. Monza had 8.1 days of rest, Cagliari 7.9 and had to travel 706 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel706 kmRest days8.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Monza36%
Draw27%
Cagliari37%
Monza28%
Draw27%
Cagliari46%
Monza37%
Draw27%
Cagliari36%
Monza29%
Draw26%
Cagliari45%
Monza37%
Draw25%
Cagliari39%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monza)
18°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 68%
Referee · ItalyAndrea Calzavara
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Monza
Cagliari
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
34
AttackIn forecast
31
26
DefenceIn forecast
31
21
Form indexContext
78
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack+28%
Defense risk−19%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
MonzaCagliari
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.67
ShotsContext
9.67
5.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
43%
On target shareContext
40%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
74%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
4.20
OffsidesContext
3.40
12.67
Shots allowedContext
20.50
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
2.83
BlocksContext
5.17
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
57%
Save rateContext
90%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
370
PassesContext
392
299
Accurate passesContext
331
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.17
FoulsContext
9.83
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
42%
On target shareContext
35%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
66%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.67
OffsidesContext
3.25
13.90
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.10
BlocksContext
4.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
57%
Save rateContext
85%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
409
PassesContext
406
343
Accurate passesContext
342
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.70
FoulsContext
9.80
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monza
LDLWL
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km971 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 4 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Cagliari
LWWWD
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel706 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monza |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 7.9Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 706 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 971 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monza
Confirmed XI
1N. Törnqvist(G)
44A. Carboni
2S. Goglichidze
60E. Kouadio
7Ricardo Mangas
14E. Akinsanmiro
8M. Foe-Ondoa
19S. Birindelli
46J. Robinson
47Dany Mota
9Gustavo Varela
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
2Zé Pedro
4Alessandro Romano
6H. Winks
8M. Adopo
70D. Maldini
18M. Nzola
31Paul Mendy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monza
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −5.4% · Defence line −14.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF L. Lucchesi Starter 6.26 Def −12.0%
- MID E. Zeballos Rotation 6.56 Att −2.4% Def −0.9%
- MID O. Forson Rotation 6.55 Att −1.7% Def −0.6%
- MID Y. Maye Rotation 6.64 Att −1.4% Def −0.5%
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.7% · Defence line −2.1% of weighted minutes
- DEF Riyad Idrissi Rotation 6.47 Def −2.1%
- ATT M. Felici Depth 6.65 Att −0.5%
- MID Yael Trepy Depth 6.72 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Monza-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Cagliari+0.9 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Monza · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Cagliari · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Monza | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Udinese | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Inter | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Monza wins1 draws2 Cagliari wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 30 Mar 2025Cagliari3–0Monza
- 5 Jan 2025Monza1–2Cagliari
- 16 Mar 2024Monza1–0Cagliari
- 26 Nov 2023Cagliari1–1Monza
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monza | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 17% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Monza | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.70 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monza | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.50 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.17 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.34 | 3.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Monza | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.00 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.60 | 3.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Calzavara Italy · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.29
Red cards0.00league 0.06
Cards 5+0%league 29%
Fouls25.0league 21.3
Penalties0.33league 0.15
Home wins33%league 47%
MonzaNo previous matches with this referee.
CagliariNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monza6 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Cagliari6 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Monza10 games · scored 12 · conceded 25
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
