Monza vs Udinese – 29 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 17:30 U-Power Stadium, Monza

Monza 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–3Full time

Udinese 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Udinese were slight favourites.

Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Monza had 7 days of rest, Udinese 7 and had to travel 312 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel312 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Monza28%

Draw26%

Udinese46%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.52

Monza27%

Draw25%

Udinese48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60

Monza29%

Draw26%

Udinese45%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.51

Monza22%

Draw24%

Udinese54%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.71

Monza28%

Draw25%

Udinese47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.56

Over 2.5 50% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Monza)

30°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 42%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyClaudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Team strength

Monza

Udinese

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

34 AttackIn forecast 22

26 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Monza

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Monza

Udinese

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

40% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.10 ShotsContext 12.30

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 37%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

61% Box shareContext 67%

6% ConversionContext 11%

3.50 OffsidesContext 2.57

13.80 Shots allowedContext 14.40

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.30 BlocksContext 4.30

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

55% Save rateContext 78%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

431 PassesContext 398

369 Accurate passesContext 334

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.00 FoulsContext 12.10

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Monza L

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km29 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 0 pts vs 0.6 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

L22 AugA · Inter1–40.2 xPts

Udinese D

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel312 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 47 · 1 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

D22 AugH · Como1–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Monza	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug	7Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	312 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	29 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	9.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Monza Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

20D. Thiam(G)

44A. Carboni 3L. Lucchesi 60E. Kouadio

7Ricardo Mangas 80M. Mout 8F. Ondoa 19S. Birindelli

10P. Cutrone 28A. Colpani

9Gustavo Varela

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40M. Okoye(G)

77E. Ebosse 28O. Solet 14J. Abankwah

11H. Kamara 8J. Karlström 24J. Piotrowski 23M. Vojvoda

32J. Ekkelenkamp 46Unai Gómez

9K. Davis

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Monza Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Monza-0.8 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Udinese+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Monza · Home No home games yet this season.

Udinese · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Monza wins3 draws2 Udinese wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 17%

11 May 2025Udinese1–2Monza
9 Dec 2024Monza1–2Udinese
3 Feb 2024Udinese0–0Monza
29 Oct 2023Monza1–1Udinese
8 Apr 2023Udinese2–2Monza
26 Aug 2022Monza1–2Udinese

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Monza	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	4.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Monza	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.30
Conceded per game	4.00	0.70
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	60%
Over 2.5	100%	20%	50%
Over 3.5	100%	10%
Both teams scored	100%	20%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	1	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Monza	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	1.00
Corners conceded	3.00	10.00
Match total	6.00	11.00	8.45
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	2.00	0.00
Match total	4.00	3.00	3.36
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Monza	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.10
Corners conceded	4.38	5.00
Match total	8.13	9.10	8.45
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.30
Match total	4.20	3.50	3.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.