Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 15:30
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AVS. Moreirense had 4.8 days of rest, AVS 5.9 and had to travel.
Rest days4.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Moreirense46%
Draw28%
AVS26%
Moreirense55%
Draw24%
AVS21%
Moreirense46%
Draw28%
AVS26%
Moreirense39%
Draw29%
AVS32%
Moreirense46%
Draw27%
AVS27%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 22
Team strength
Moreirense
AVS
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
17
AttackIn forecast
17
27
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseAVS
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.03
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
48%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
8.45
ShotsContext
10.30
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.91
37%
On target shareContext
27%
4.94
Shots in the boxContext
5.53
57%
Box shareContext
54%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.61
OffsidesContext
1.95
12.67
Shots allowedContext
14.82
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.36
3.47
BlocksContext
3.69
3.03
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
416
PassesContext
291
346
Accurate passesContext
215
83%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.65
13.58
FoulsContext
13.27
14.82
Fouls sufferedContext
10.55
2.52
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.90
ShotsContext
11.20
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
37%
On target shareContext
30%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
54%
Box shareContext
49%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.17
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.60
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
4.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
67%
Save rateContext
82%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
419
PassesContext
255
347
Accurate passesContext
183
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.60
FoulsContext
13.40
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km198 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 198 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 85.2 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
16Mika(G)
27Kiko
66G. Dambi Batista
4Kevyn Monteiro
70Fabiano
21Rodri Alonso
23N. John
10Kiko Bondoso
30J. Gower
2Diogo Travassos
99Maranhão
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
70Roni
21G. Neiva
27Ángel Algobia
23Gustavo Mendonça
11B. Akinsola
20Diego Duarte
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.63points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-6
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.31
AVS · Away
0.50points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-10
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Estrela | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Benfica | L 1–4 AL 0–4 H | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Estoril | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–6 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Alverca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 39 of 96 · 1.22 per game | 20 of 96 · 0.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Moreirense wins1 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 3 Jan 2026AVS0–2Moreirense
- 17 May 2025AVS0–3Moreirense
- 4 Jan 2025Moreirense1–1AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 2.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.85 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 61% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 45% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 52% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Moreirense | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 1.90 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.97 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.47 | 5.64 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 9.78 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 15/30 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 11/30 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 3/30 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.61 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.48 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 20/33 | 55% 18/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 15/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Moreirense | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 10.51 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.70 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.80
Red cards0.00league 0.24
Cards 5+41%league 57%
Fouls26.7league 26.7
Penalties0.09league 0.43
Home wins55%league 41%
Moreirense3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 Jan 26H · Tondela1–01
- D19 Jan 25H · Farense0–02
- L14 Dec 24A · Nacional0–13
AVS2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Aug 25A · Arouca1–30
- L8 Feb 25H · Santa Clara1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense33 games · scored 37 · conceded 49
8
5
0-15
4
7
16-30
3
7
31-45
7
10
46-60
9
8
61-75
6
12
76-90
AVS33 games · scored 27 · conceded 67
1
11
0-15
4
10
16-30
5
11
31-45
4
14
46-60
6
12
61-75
7
9
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
