Moreirense vs SC Braga – 9 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 9 · 20:30 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense

2–2Full time

SC Braga

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Moreirense. Moreirense had 85.2 days of rest, SC Braga 85.1 and had to travel 20 km.

Away travel20 kmRest days85.2 · 85.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Moreirense24%

Draw24%

SC Braga51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.67

Moreirense24%

Draw24%

SC Braga52%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.68

Moreirense24%

Draw24%

SC Braga51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.67

Moreirense19%

Draw22%

SC Braga59%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.87

Moreirense25%

Draw25%

SC Braga50%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.61

Over 2.5 52% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

No weather data yet

RefereeJosé Bessa

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 30

Team strength

Moreirense

SC Braga

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

17 AttackIn forecast 42

27 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

SC Braga

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.64 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

50% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.90 ShotsContext 8.60

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

34% On target shareContext 38%

4.33 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

51% Box shareContext 56%

9% ConversionContext 20%

1.17 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.60 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.70 BlocksContext 3.25

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

67% Save rateContext 62%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

421 PassesContext 537

348 Accurate passesContext 462

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.30 FoulsContext 11.30

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense

Rest85.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Braga

Rest85.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel20 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	SC Braga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	85.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May	85.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	20 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	22

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 4Kevyn Monteiro 66G. Dambi Batista 2Leandro Santos

21Rodri Alonso 65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

11Landerson 9A. Duville-Parsemain 89A. Vieira

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 6Vitor Carvalho 14G. Lagerbielke

11Gabriel Silva 34D. Tıknaz 29J. Gorby 7Diogo Travassos

21Ricardo Horta 9Fran Navarro 20M. Dorgeles

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
SC Braga+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home No home games yet this season.

SC Braga · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Moreirense wins0 draws6 SC Braga wins

Goals per game0.83 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

4 Apr 2026Moreirense0–1SC Braga
9 Nov 2025SC Braga2–1Moreirense
3 Feb 2025Moreirense1–2SC Braga
25 Aug 2024SC Braga3–1Moreirense
4 Feb 2024SC Braga1–0Moreirense
9 Sep 2023Moreirense2–3SC Braga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Moreirense	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.70
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	2.20	3.20	2.74
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.60
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.40
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Moreirense	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.10
Corners conceded	4.89	3.80
Match total	8.56	7.90	10.60
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.90
Opponent cards	2.40	2.90
Match total	4.60	5.80	4.40
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Bessa 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.17league 4.20

Red cards0.33league 0.20

Cards 5+57%league 20%

Fouls25.4league 24.2

Penalties0.23league 0.40

Home wins40%league 40%

Moreirense6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W27 Sep 25H · Casa Pia2–15
W6 Apr 25A · GIL Vicente1–04
D2 Mar 25H · Estrela1–12
W12 May 24A · Casa Pia1–02
L20 Apr 24H · GIL Vicente0–10

SC Braga1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L14 Sep 25H · GIL Vicente0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.