NAC Breda vs Feyenoord – 8 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 8 · 15:45 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 17th · 22 pts · 25 played DLWWL

First leg0–2 3–3Full time

Feyenoord 2nd · 48 pts · 25 played LWWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were slight favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for NAC Breda. NAC Breda had 8.9 days of rest, Feyenoord 7.1 and had to travel 43 km.

Away travel43 kmRest days8.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

NAC Breda24%

Draw25%

Feyenoord50%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.69

NAC Breda21%

Draw25%

Feyenoord55%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.77

NAC Breda24%

Draw26%

Feyenoord50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.66

NAC Breda19%

Draw23%

Feyenoord58%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.90

NAC Breda24%

Draw26%

Feyenoord50%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.61

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 49

Team strength

NAC Breda

Feyenoord

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

19 AttackIn forecast 76

19 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

Feyenoord

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

60% Scored inContext 88%

16% Clean sheetsContext 32%

12.92 ShotsContext 17.16

4.35 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.44

31% On target shareContext 38%

8.04 Shots in the boxContext 11.68

60% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.06 OffsidesContext 1.93

12.56 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.16 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.86

3.04 BlocksContext 2.75

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

70% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

389 PassesContext 443

305 Accurate passesContext 371

79% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.08 FoulsContext 9.60

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.76

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.80 ShotsContext 15.10

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

30% On target shareContext 38%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

57% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.70 Shots allowedContext 10.20

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.22 BlocksContext 2.30

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

73% Save rateContext 67%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

388 PassesContext 434

302 Accurate passesContext 361

78% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.10 FoulsContext 9.80

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km195 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Feyenoord

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel43 km337 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Feb	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	43 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	195 km	337 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 8C. Leemans 12L. Greiml 25C. Valerius

14K. Sowah 16M. Balard 2B. Lucassen

90L. Holtby

7C. Brym 24A. Ayew

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 21A. Ahmedhodžić 4T. Watanabe 20M. Deijl

7J. Moder 6I. Hwang 10L. Valente

19R. Sterling 9A. Ueda 23A. Hadj Moussa

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda+0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Feyenoord+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.15points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-6
Scored: 1.15
Conceded: 1.38

Feyenoord · Away 1.67points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-4
Scored: 1.92
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	Feyenoord
Telstar	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	W 3–1 H
Heracles	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A
Excelsior	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Twente	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A	L 2–4 H
Groningen	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Heerenveen	D 3–3 A	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	W 6–1 H
Ajax	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	D 3–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Points	22 of 72 · 0.92 per game	45 of 72 · 1.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 NAC Breda wins1 draws2 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.33 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets33% · 100%

9 Aug 2025Feyenoord2–0NAC Breda
15 Feb 2025NAC Breda0–0Feyenoord
22 Sep 2024Feyenoord2–0NAC Breda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.20
Conceded per game	1.56	1.40
Match goals	2.56	3.60	2.80
Over 1.5	64%	84%
Over 2.5	52%	64%	53%
Over 3.5	24%	44%
Both teams scored	48%	56%	55%
Clean sheets	16%	32%
Failed to score	40%	12%
Games	25	25

	NAC Breda	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.70
Conceded per game	1.50	1.60
Match goals	2.50	3.30	2.80
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.16	7.13
Corners conceded	4.16	3.61
Match total	9.32	10.74	10.31
Over 8.5	60% 15/25	70% 16/23
Over 9.5	44% 11/25	57% 13/23
Over 10.5	40% 10/25	43% 10/23
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.56
Opponent cards	1.96	1.36
Match total	3.96	2.92	3.45
Over 3.5	56% 14/25	36% 9/25
Over 4.5	44% 11/25	20% 5/25

	NAC Breda	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	6.22
Corners conceded	4.80	2.67
Match total	9.90	8.89	10.31
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.80
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	3.80	3.70	3.45
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.24league 3.26

Red cards0.14league 0.18

Cards 5+29%league 29%

Fouls19.7league 21.4

Penalties0.29league 0.25

Home wins47%league 44%

NAC Breda3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D14 Dec 25H · Utrecht1–12
L31 Aug 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–11
W20 Oct 24A · PEC Zwolle2–12

Feyenoord7 with this referee

Record6-0-1 Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W5 Oct 25H · Utrecht3–22
L18 May 25A · Heerenveen0–21
W5 Apr 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–02
W22 Feb 25H · Almere City FC2–10
W23 Nov 24H · Heerenveen3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.