NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. NAC Breda had 15 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 14 and had to travel 137 km.
Away travel137 kmRest days15 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 0
NAC Breda39%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle34%
NAC Breda38%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle35%
NAC Breda38%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle35%
NAC Breda32%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle42%
NAC Breda38%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle35%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 89
Team strength
NAC Breda
PEC Zwolle
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
19
AttackIn forecast
17
19
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaPEC Zwolle
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
63%
Scored inContext
63%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.63
ShotsContext
8.13
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.43
37%
On target shareContext
26%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
66%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
15.38
Shots allowedContext
16.75
6.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.50
BlocksContext
3.13
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
71%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
380
PassesContext
358
298
Accurate passesContext
282
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.88
FoulsContext
9.75
13.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.25
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
60%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
9.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
34%
On target shareContext
28%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
66%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.50
Shots allowedContext
16.10
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.20
BlocksContext
3.50
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
69%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
408
PassesContext
387
329
Accurate passesContext
310
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.00
FoulsContext
10.00
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel137 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 137 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
12L. Greiml
25C. Valerius
90L. Holtby
16M. Balard
14K. Sowah
10M. Nassoh
7C. Brym
17S. van Hooijdonk
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
22K. de Rooij
10Koen Kostons
19J. Faberski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PEC Zwolle-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
PEC Zwolle · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Twente | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 NAC Breda wins0 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 May 2025NAC Breda1–3PEC Zwolle
- 20 Oct 2024PEC Zwolle1–2NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 8.28 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 4.13 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 8.22 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.39league 3.49
Red cards0.12league 0.23
Cards 5+28%league 36%
Fouls21.6league 22.3
Penalties0.25league 0.23
Home wins43%league 51%
NAC Breda1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L6 Apr 25A · Ajax1–35
PEC Zwolle3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W29 Mar 25H · Waalwijk2–01
- D13 Jan 24H · Heerenveen2–21
- W5 Nov 23H · Fortuna Sittard2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda8 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle7 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
