Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Nantes had 6.1 days of rest, Auxerre 7 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nantes39%
Draw28%
Auxerre33%
Nantes40%
Draw27%
Auxerre33%
Nantes39%
Draw28%
Auxerre33%
Nantes32%
Draw28%
Auxerre40%
Nantes40%
Draw27%
Auxerre33%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 72
Team strength
Nantes
Auxerre
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
24
AttackIn forecast
39
45
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesAuxerre
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
0%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
7.00
ShotsContext
9.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
14%
On target shareContext
56%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
59%
Box shareContext
60%
0%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
—
16.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
6.00
BlocksContext
—
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
75%
Save rateContext
78%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
386
PassesContext
370
309
Accurate passesContext
297
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
7.50
FoulsContext
16.50
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.00
ShotsContext
9.70
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
29%
On target shareContext
37%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
59%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.44
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
70%
Save rateContext
76%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
373
PassesContext
395
305
Accurate passesContext
326
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.90
FoulsContext
12.20
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,418 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km1,076 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,418 km | 1,076 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
8J. Lepenant
13F. Coquelin
7H. Hong
11B. Guirassy
31M. Abdalla
90Y. Benhattab
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
40T. De Percin(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
4F. Sierralta
29M. Senaya
23I. Osman
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
7J. Casimir
19D. Namaso
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Auxerre+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Auxerre · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Nantes wins1 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 10 May 2025Auxerre1–1Nantes
- 25 Aug 2024Nantes2–0Auxerre
- 16 Apr 2023Auxerre2–1Nantes
- 1 Jan 2023Nantes1–0Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Nantes | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.50 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Nantes | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.11 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.90 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.40
Red cards0.26league 0.30
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls24.4league 23.7
Penalties0.22league 0.40
Home wins46%league 65%
Nantes6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Mar 25A · Marseille0–22
- W6 Oct 23A · Strasbourg2–11
- D28 Dec 22A · Estac Troyes0–02
- L12 Mar 22A · Estac Troyes0–11
- W10 Dec 21H · Lens3–23
Auxerre3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L13 Apr 25H · Lyon1–33
- L19 Jan 25A · Angers0–22
- D22 Apr 23H · Lille1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes2 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Auxerre2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
