Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 25). Nantes had 15.1 days of rest, Lille 14 and had to travel 511 km.
Away travel511 kmRest days15.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Nantes22%
Draw25%
Lille53%
Nantes22%
Draw25%
Lille53%
Nantes21%
Draw25%
Lille54%
Nantes17%
Draw23%
Lille61%
Nantes22%
Draw25%
Lille53%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 78
Team strength
Nantes
Lille
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
24
AttackIn forecast
42
45
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesLille
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
43%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.29
ShotsContext
14.86
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
20%
On target shareContext
31%
5.43
Shots in the boxContext
10.71
56%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.43
15.57
Shots allowedContext
10.57
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
5.50
BlocksContext
2.57
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
80%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
383
PassesContext
459
312
Accurate passesContext
388
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.86
FoulsContext
12.86
12.57
Fouls sufferedContext
14.29
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
15.00
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
24%
On target shareContext
31%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
54%
Box shareContext
76%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.78
BlocksContext
2.67
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
78%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
401
PassesContext
481
331
Accurate passesContext
404
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.70
FoulsContext
11.90
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel511 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 511 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
66L. Leroux
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
17D. Assoumani
5H. Kwon
80J. Mwanga
11B. Guirassy
31M. Abdalla
10M. Abline
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
18C. Mbemba
12T. Meunier
32A. Bouaddi
21B. André
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
10H. Haraldsson
27Félix Correia
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lille-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lille · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Nantes wins3 draws4 Lille wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 15 Mar 2025Nantes1–0Lille
- 4 Jan 2025Lille1–1Nantes
- 12 May 2024Nantes1–2Lille
- 20 Aug 2023Lille2–0Nantes
- 27 May 2023Lille2–1Nantes
- 12 Aug 2022Nantes1–1Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 3.43 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 29% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Nantes | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 3.11 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 29% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 56% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 22% | |
| Games | 7 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.71 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 10.42 | 9.57 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 4.57 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Nantes | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.40 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.55league 3.72
Red cards0.27league 0.32
Cards 5+42%league 34%
Fouls24.2league 24.5
Penalties0.27league 0.55
Home wins37%league 54%
Nantes8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- L4 May 25H · Angers0–12
- L15 Feb 25A · Monaco1–72
- W17 Sep 23A · Clermont Foot1–03
- W15 Jan 23A · Montpellier3–02
- L2 Oct 22A · Monaco1–41
Lille8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 25A · Stade Brestois 290–21
- W20 Apr 25H · Auxerre3–11
- L8 Feb 25H · LE Havre1–22
- L6 May 23A · Reims0–13
- W26 Aug 22A · Ajaccio3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lille7 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
9
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
11
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
