Nantes vs Lorient – 23 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 23 · 16:15 Stade de la Beaujoire – Louis Fonteneau, Nantes

Nantes 16th · 10 pts · 12 played LWLLD

1–1Full time

Lorient 17th · 10 pts · 12 played DLDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nantes were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Nantes had 14.9 days of rest, Lorient 14.1 and had to travel 149 km.

Away travel149 kmRest days14.9 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Nantes44%

Draw27%

Lorient29%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.14

Nantes44%

Draw27%

Lorient29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Nantes44%

Draw27%

Lorient29%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.13

Nantes37%

Draw28%

Lorient35%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.28

Nantes45%

Draw26%

Lorient29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.19

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nantes)

No weather data yet

RefereeRuddy Buquet

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 66

Team strength

Nantes

Lorient

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

24 AttackIn forecast 28

45 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nantes

Lorient

0.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.17

0.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

50% Scored inContext 58%

17% Clean sheetsContext 8%

9.75 ShotsContext 11.33

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.58

26% On target shareContext 32%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

54% Box shareContext 67%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.86

16.00 Shots allowedContext 9.75

5.08 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.42

5.20 BlocksContext 2.70

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

72% Save rateContext 55%

43% PossessionIn forecast 44%

352 PassesContext 409

281 Accurate passesContext 346

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.66

11.00 FoulsContext 10.33

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.75

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

60% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.30 ShotsContext 10.00

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

27% On target shareContext 33%

5.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

53% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.80

15.90 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

5.00 BlocksContext 2.89

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

72% Save rateContext 53%

44% PossessionIn forecast 42%

345 PassesContext 397

276 Accurate passesContext 334

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.61

11.70 FoulsContext 9.20

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 15.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nantes

Rest14.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel149 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nantes	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Nov	14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	149 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 98K. Amian

80J. Mwanga 5H. Kwon 17D. Assoumani

10M. Abline 19Y. El-Arabi 15M. Lahdo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

44D. Yongwa 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 8Noah Cadiou 62A. Avom 11T. Le Bris

29D. Karim 15A. Tosin

28S. Soumano

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nantes Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nantes+0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lorient+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Nantes · Home 0.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Lorient · Away 0.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-5
Scored: 0.17
Conceded: 2.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Nantes	Lorient
LE Havre	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Monaco	L 3–5 H	W 3–1 H
Paris FC	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 A
Lille	L 0–2 H	L 1–7 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 0–0 A	D 3–3 H
Toulouse	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
Rennes	D 2–2 H	W 4–0 H
Auxerre	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Points	10 of 27 · 1.11 per game	10 of 27 · 1.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Nantes wins0 draws1 Lorient wins

Goals per game2.33 – 1.33 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

24 Feb 2024Lorient0–1Nantes
23 Sep 2023Nantes5–3Lorient
12 Feb 2023Nantes1–0Lorient
11 Sep 2022Lorient3–2Nantes
23 Jan 2022Nantes4–2Lorient
5 Dec 2021Lorient0–1Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nantes	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	0.92	1.17
Conceded per game	1.50	2.17
Match goals	2.42	3.33	2.61
Over 1.5	58%	92%
Over 2.5	33%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	25%	42%
Both teams scored	42%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	17%	8%
Failed to score	50%	42%
Games	12	12

	Nantes	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	2.50
Match goals	2.70	3.50	2.61
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nantes	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	3.58	3.90
Corners conceded	6.67	3.90
Match total	10.25	7.80	9.45
Over 8.5	75% 9/12	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	67% 8/12	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	58% 7/12	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.42
Opponent cards	2.50	2.33
Match total	4.25	4.75	4.20
Over 3.5	67% 8/12	75% 9/12
Over 4.5	42% 5/12	58% 7/12

	Nantes	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	4.13
Corners conceded	6.60	4.13
Match total	10.10	8.26	9.45
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.10
Opponent cards	2.70	2.30
Match total	4.50	4.40	4.20
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ruddy Buquet 66 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 3.84

Red cards0.44league 0.33

Cards 5+47%league 38%

Fouls23.9league 24.2

Penalties0.35league 0.49

Home wins42%league 51%

Nantes10 with this referee

Record4-1-5 Cards · opp.3.1 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 6 Reds4

W24 Oct 25A · Paris FC2–12
W2 Dec 23H · Nice1–03
L1 Oct 23A · Rennes1–37
D1 Sep 23H · Marseille1–11
L20 May 23H · Montpellier0–34

Lorient6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.2 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W27 Sep 25H · Monaco3–12
D19 Mar 23A · Nice1–13
W16 Sep 22A · Auxerre3–11
D14 May 22A · Bordeaux0–04
W8 Apr 22H · Saint Etienne6–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.