Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nantes were slight favourites.
Nantes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Metz. Nantes had 3.8 days of rest, Metz 3.9 and had to travel 608 km.
Away travel608 kmRest days3.8 · 3.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Nantes52%
Draw26%
Metz22%
Nantes52%
Draw25%
Metz23%
Nantes51%
Draw26%
Metz23%
Nantes45%
Draw27%
Metz28%
Nantes53%
Draw25%
Metz22%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 25
Team strength
Nantes
Metz
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
24
AttackIn forecast
11
45
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesMetz
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.02
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
8.10
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
25%
On target shareContext
32%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
56%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.25
16.30
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
5.22
BlocksContext
3.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
72%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
361
PassesContext
449
289
Accurate passesContext
389
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.20
FoulsContext
11.40
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.02
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
8.10
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
25%
On target shareContext
32%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
56%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.25
16.30
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
5.22
BlocksContext
3.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
72%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
361
PassesContext
449
289
Accurate passesContext
389
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.20
FoulsContext
11.40
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km685 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Metz
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel608 km541 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 608 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 685 km | 541 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
66L. Leroux
80J. Mwanga
17D. Assoumani
10M. Abline
19Y. El-Arabi
11B. Guirassy
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
2M. Colin
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
39K. Kouao
12Alpha Touré
7G. Tsitaishvili
20J. Deminguet
23I. Sané
14C. Sabaly
30M. Diallo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Metz-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Metz · Away
0.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | L 3–5 H | L 2–5 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Lille | L 0–2 H | L 1–6 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 0 of 15 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Nantes wins1 draws2 Metz wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 3 Mar 2024Nantes0–2Metz
- 12 Nov 2023Metz3–1Nantes
- 27 Feb 2022Metz0–0Nantes
- 15 Aug 2021Nantes2–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Nantes | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.30 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.90 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Nantes | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.30 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.90 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.04league 3.89
Red cards0.20league 0.31
Cards 5+16%league 39%
Fouls21.0league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.49
Home wins52%league 52%
Nantes6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Oct 25A · Stade Brestois 290–01
- L15 Dec 24A · Stade Brestois 291–43
- D20 Oct 24H · Nice1–12
- W25 Aug 24H · Auxerre2–02
- W11 Feb 24A · Toulouse2–11
Metz6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L31 Aug 25A · Paris FC2–32
- L19 May 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- W10 Mar 24H · Clermont Foot1–01
- L3 Dec 23A · Lille0–20
- L1 Oct 23A · Toulouse0–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 8 · conceded 26
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
11
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 8 · conceded 26
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
11
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
