Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 25). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Nantes had 5.1 days of rest, Monaco 4.1 and had to travel 799 km.
Away travel799 kmRest days5.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nantes26%
Draw26%
Monaco48%
Nantes26%
Draw26%
Monaco48%
Nantes25%
Draw26%
Monaco49%
Nantes20%
Draw24%
Monaco55%
Nantes27%
Draw26%
Monaco47%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 94
Team strength
Nantes
Monaco
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
24
AttackIn forecast
45
45
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesMonaco
0.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
44%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
9.22
ShotsContext
12.00
2.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
23%
On target shareContext
31%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
55%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.22
Shots allowedContext
11.56
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
5.50
BlocksContext
3.89
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
77%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
361
PassesContext
506
290
Accurate passesContext
430
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.00
FoulsContext
12.56
12.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.20
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
25%
On target shareContext
33%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
57%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
15.40
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
5.33
BlocksContext
4.40
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
77%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
368
PassesContext
462
299
Accurate passesContext
392
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.20
FoulsContext
13.60
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km685 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel799 km1,492 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 799 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 685 km | 1,492 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
66L. Leroux
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
17D. Assoumani
5H. Kwon
80J. Mwanga
10M. Abline
19Y. El-Arabi
11B. Guirassy
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
13C. Mawissa
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
4J. Teze
20K. Ouattara
28M. Coulibaly
18T. Minamino
27K. Diatta
9F. Balogun
11M. Akliouche
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Monaco-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Monaco · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Nantes wins5 draws3 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.88
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 15 Feb 2025Monaco7–1Nantes
- 10 Jan 2025Nantes2–2Monaco
- 19 May 2024Monaco4–0Nantes
- 25 Aug 2023Nantes3–3Monaco
- 9 Apr 2023Nantes2–2Monaco
- 2 Oct 2022Monaco4–1Nantes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 1.89 | 3.44 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 44% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 78% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Nantes | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 1.89 | 3.44 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 44% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 78% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.11 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 9.67 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 4.22 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Nantes | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.60 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.81
Red cards0.24league 0.29
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls24.0league 24.6
Penalties0.36league 0.53
Home wins38%league 54%
Nantes8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W23 Feb 25H · Lens3–12
- L24 Nov 24H · LE Havre0–22
- L7 Apr 24H · Lyon1–32
- L17 Feb 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–21
- L9 Dec 23A · Paris Saint Germain1–23
Monaco9 with this referee
Record6-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds1
- W3 May 25A · Saint Etienne3–10
- W29 Mar 25H · Nice2–12
- L17 Jan 25A · Montpellier1–22
- D4 Feb 24H · LE Havre1–13
- W20 Dec 23A · Toulouse2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes9 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Monaco9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
