Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nantes
17th · 19 pts · 28 played
LLLDD
1–1Full time
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 36 pts · 28 played
WWLLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Nantes had 7.9 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 14.9 and had to travel 255 km.
Away travel255 kmRest days7.9 · 14.9Matches / 14d2 · 0
Nantes35%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2937%
Nantes29%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2944%
Nantes36%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2936%
Nantes29%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2944%
Nantes36%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2937%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 12
Team strength
NantesStade Brestois 29
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
47
45
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesStade Brestois 29
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
57%
Scored inContext
68%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
9.93
ShotsContext
10.96
3.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
32%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
61%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.79
OffsidesContext
1.72
13.29
Shots allowedContext
12.82
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.69
4.08
BlocksContext
3.74
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
68%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
351
PassesContext
362
280
Accurate passesContext
284
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.25
FoulsContext
12.96
13.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.54
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.82
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
9.90
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
29%
On target shareContext
28%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
69%
Box shareContext
58%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.80
9.60
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.88
BlocksContext
4.30
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
68%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
343
PassesContext
344
268
Accurate passesContext
265
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.20
FoulsContext
12.80
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,996 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel255 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 14.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 255 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,996 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
27D. Machado
3N. Cozza
2Ali Yusuf
24F. Guilbert
13F. Coquelin
37I. Ganago
8J. Lepenant
28I. Sissoko
17D. Assoumani
31M. Abdalla
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
44S. Coulibaly
5B. Chardonnet
12T. Zogbé
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
14R. Labeau-Lascary
7É. Dina Ebimbe
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-10
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.86
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Metz | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 HL 1–4 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| LE Havre | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Monaco | L 1–3 AL 3–5 H | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Lorient | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Nice | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Marseille | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 18 of 81 · 0.67 per game | 35 of 81 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Nantes wins3 draws4 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.44
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 56%
- 4 Oct 2025Stade Brestois 290–0Nantes
- 7 Feb 2025Nantes0–2Stade Brestois 29
- 15 Dec 2024Stade Brestois 294–1Nantes
- 4 May 2024Stade Brestois 290–0Nantes
- 17 Dec 2023Nantes0–2Stade Brestois 29
- 3 May 2023Stade Brestois 292–0Nantes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 2.86 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 43% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 32% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Nantes | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.15 | 4.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.52 | 5.27 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.58 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 11/27 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.78 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 20/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Nantes | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.60 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.30 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.66
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+33%league 35%
Fouls24.5league 23.8
Penalties0.08league 0.36
Home wins42%league 48%
Nantes1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Sep 25A · Nice0–10
Stade Brestois 291 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Jan 26H · Toulouse0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes28 games · scored 24 · conceded 45
5
4
0-15
1
8
16-30
8
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
16
76-90
Stade Brestois 2928 games · scored 37 · conceded 43
7
5
0-15
5
10
16-30
6
7
31-45
7
4
46-60
5
9
61-75
7
8
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
2
0-15
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
6
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
