Nantes vs Strasbourg – 22 Mar 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 22 · 19:45 Stade de la Beaujoire – Louis Fonteneau, Nantes

Nantes 17th · 17 pts · 25 played LLWLL

2–3Full time

Strasbourg 8th · 37 pts · 26 played DWDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were slight favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Nantes had 15.2 days of rest, Strasbourg 7.2 and had to travel 709 km.

Away travel709 kmRest days15.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d0 · 1

Nantes24%

Draw28%

Strasbourg49%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.46

Nantes22%

Draw25%

Strasbourg53%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.72

Nantes24%

Draw28%

Strasbourg48%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.43

Nantes18%

Draw26%

Strasbourg56%

Expected goals 0.83 – 1.63

Nantes24%

Draw28%

Strasbourg48%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.45

Over 2.5 43% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nantes)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 55

Team strength

Nantes

Strasbourg

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

24 AttackIn forecast 40

45 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nantes

Strasbourg

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.54

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.19

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

60% Scored inContext 81%

16% Clean sheetsContext 35%

9.80 ShotsContext 10.81

2.96 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.48

28% On target shareContext 40%

6.21 Shots in the boxContext 7.68

60% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.82 OffsidesContext 1.91

13.40 Shots allowedContext 11.35

4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

4.19 BlocksContext 3.25

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.92

67% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 53%

356 PassesContext 508

285 Accurate passesContext 448

80% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.12 FoulsContext 11.04

13.32 Fouls sufferedContext 12.23

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.81

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 25 and 26 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.50 ShotsContext 11.90

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

30% On target shareContext 40%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

65% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.13 OffsidesContext 3.14

9.80 Shots allowedContext 14.10

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.25 BlocksContext 3.56

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

62% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

370 PassesContext 471

299 Accurate passesContext 411

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.89

13.90 FoulsContext 10.50

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nantes

Rest15.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Strasbourg

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel709 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nantes	Strasbourg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Mar	7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	709 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.8	12.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 98K. Amian

8J. Lepenant 28I. Sissoko 21M. Kaba

10M. Abline 37I. Ganago 17D. Assoumani

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

39M. Penders(G)

24L. Høgsberg 2A. Omobamidele 6I. Doukouré 22G. Doué

8M. Oyedele 32V. Barco

20B. Godo 11A. Nanasi 27S. Amo-Ameyaw

15D. Fofana

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Strasbourg Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nantes-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Strasbourg+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Nantes · Home 0.62points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-9
Scored: 0.92
Conceded: 1.77

Strasbourg · Away 1.00points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-6
Scored: 1.46
Conceded: 1.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nantes	Strasbourg
Angers	L 0–1 HL 1–4 A	W 5–0 H
Lille	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
LE Havre	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Monaco	L 1–3 AL 3–5 H	L 2–3 A
Lyon	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A
Lorient	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Nice	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Paris FC	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 HW 3–2 A
Marseille	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
Lens	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Metz	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Toulouse	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 A
Rennes	D 2–2 H	L 1–4 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 HD 3–3 A
Points	17 of 72 · 0.71 per game	34 of 75 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Nantes wins2 draws6 Strasbourg wins

Goals per game0.78 – 1.67 Over 2.544% Both scored56% Clean sheets0% · 44%

24 Aug 2025Strasbourg1–0Nantes
9 Mar 2025Nantes0–1Strasbourg
27 Oct 2024Strasbourg3–1Nantes
16 Mar 2024Nantes1–3Strasbourg
6 Oct 2023Strasbourg1–2Nantes
7 May 2023Nantes0–2Strasbourg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nantes	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	1.54
Conceded per game	1.68	1.19
Match goals	2.56	2.73	2.39
Over 1.5	68%	69%
Over 2.5	44%	58%	43%
Over 3.5	24%	31%
Both teams scored	48%	58%	47%
Clean sheets	16%	35%
Failed to score	40%	19%
Games	25	26

	Nantes	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.50
Conceded per game	1.80	1.10
Match goals	2.70	2.60	2.39
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	43%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	47%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nantes	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	3.21	3.88
Corners conceded	5.71	4.42
Match total	8.92	8.30	9.11
Over 8.5	63% 15/24	50% 12/24
Over 9.5	46% 11/24	29% 7/24
Over 10.5	42% 10/24	25% 6/24
Cards
Cards	2.04	2.04
Opponent cards	2.44	1.92
Match total	4.48	3.96	4.00
Over 3.5	68% 17/25	69% 18/26
Over 4.5	44% 11/25	31% 8/26

	Nantes	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	4.20
Corners conceded	4.40	5.80
Match total	7.60	10.00	9.11
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.70
Opponent cards	2.90	2.20
Match total	5.40	3.90	4.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 55 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.16league 3.70

Red cards0.38league 0.28

Cards 5+49%league 37%

Fouls26.7league 23.8

Penalties0.33league 0.37

Home wins44%league 48%

Nantes5 with this referee

Record2-2-1 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 2

L7 Feb 26H · Lyon0–14
D20 Sep 25H · Rennes2–23
D22 Sep 24A · Angers1–14
W12 Feb 23H · Lorient1–00
W28 Aug 22H · Toulouse3–10

Strasbourg4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

W17 Aug 25A · Metz1–02
W2 Mar 25A · Auxerre1–04
D18 Aug 24A · Montpellier1–13
L5 Nov 22A · Ajaccio2–44

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.