Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nantes were slight favourites.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Nantes had 9 days of rest, Toulouse 7 and had to travel 465 km.
Away travel465 kmRest days9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nantes40%
Draw28%
Toulouse32%
Nantes31%
Draw27%
Toulouse42%
Nantes40%
Draw28%
Toulouse32%
Nantes33%
Draw28%
Toulouse39%
Nantes41%
Draw27%
Toulouse32%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 86
Team strength
Nantes
Toulouse
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
24
AttackIn forecast
45
45
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesToulouse
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
58%
Scored inContext
70%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.82
ShotsContext
12.55
3.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.21
30%
On target shareContext
34%
7.09
Shots in the boxContext
8.35
62%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.94
13.15
Shots allowedContext
12.06
4.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.16
4.11
BlocksContext
3.45
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
69%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
341
PassesContext
368
270
Accurate passesContext
302
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.27
FoulsContext
14.03
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.85
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.12
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
33%
On target shareContext
29%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
67%
Box shareContext
52%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.75
11.90
Shots allowedContext
15.10
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.67
BlocksContext
4.11
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
75%
Save rateContext
64%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
291
PassesContext
376
222
Accurate passesContext
310
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.90
FoulsContext
13.80
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km960 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel465 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 May | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 465 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 960 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 97 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
72Sékou Doucoure
6C. Awaziem
22M. Acapandié
8J. Lepenant
28I. Sissoko
20R. Cabella
21M. Kaba
37I. Ganago
10M. Abline
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
35S. Koumbassa
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
23C. Cásseres
18Pape Diop
19D. Sidibé
10G. Gboho
11S. Hidalgo
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Toulouse+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.75points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-10
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.69
Toulouse · Away
1.25points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-8
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Marseille | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Rennes | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 AL 3–6 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 HL 1–4 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–4 HL 1–2 A |
| LE Havre | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Monaco | L 1–3 AL 3–5 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Lorient | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Nice | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 96 · 0.69 per game | 43 of 96 · 1.34 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Nantes wins4 draws1 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.14 – 0.86
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 43%
- 27 Sep 2025Toulouse2–2Nantes
- 27 Apr 2025Nantes0–0Toulouse
- 18 Aug 2024Toulouse0–0Nantes
- 11 Feb 2024Toulouse1–2Nantes
- 13 Aug 2023Nantes1–2Toulouse
- 14 May 2023Toulouse0–0Nantes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 2.82 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 55% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 48% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 30% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Nantes | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.30 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.45 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.74 | 5.06 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 9.42 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 20/31 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 15/31 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 14/31 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.06 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.39 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 23/33 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 14/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Nantes | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 8.50 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.66
Red cards0.22league 0.26
Cards 5+31%league 36%
Fouls24.4league 23.6
Penalties0.24league 0.37
Home wins51%league 46%
Nantes8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L12 Dec 25A · Angers1–42
- W30 Aug 25H · Auxerre1–01
- L2 Mar 25A · Marseille0–22
- W6 Oct 23A · Strasbourg2–11
- D28 Dec 22A · Estac Troyes0–02
Toulouse8 with this referee
Record3-0-5
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L28 Feb 26A · Rennes0–13
- W6 Dec 25H · Strasbourg1–03
- L7 Dec 24A · Monaco0–22
- L31 Aug 24H · Marseille1–35
- W3 Jun 23A · Monaco2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes33 games · scored 29 · conceded 52
6
6
0-15
1
8
16-30
9
8
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
19
76-90
Toulouse33 games · scored 47 · conceded 46
9
5
0-15
4
9
16-30
7
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
16
10
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
61-75
6
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
5
1
0-15
1
7
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
