Napoli vs Atalanta – 22 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 22 · 19:45 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 5th · 22 pts · 11 played LWWDL

3–1Full time

Atalanta 13th · 13 pts · 11 played DDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Napoli had 13.2 days of rest, Atalanta 13.3 and had to travel 655 km.

Away travel655 kmRest days13.2 · 13.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Napoli47%

Draw27%

Atalanta26%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.09

Napoli47%

Draw26%

Atalanta26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Napoli47%

Draw27%

Atalanta26%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.07

Napoli39%

Draw28%

Atalanta33%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.23

Napoli47%

Draw26%

Atalanta27%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.15

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 65

Team strength

Napoli

Atalanta

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

61 AttackIn forecast 48

70 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Atalanta

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

0.91 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

73% Scored inContext 73%

36% Clean sheetsContext 18%

13.91 ShotsContext 14.45

5.09 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

37% On target shareContext 28%

8.91 Shots in the boxContext 9.18

61% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.71

11.09 Shots allowedContext 10.18

2.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.91

3.18 BlocksContext 2.90

1.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

68% Save rateContext 79%

59% PossessionIn forecast 57%

527 PassesContext 499

458 Accurate passesContext 432

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.90

13.36 FoulsContext 9.45

12.73 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.45 Yellow cardsContext 1.55

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.73

60% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.80 ShotsContext 14.80

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

30% On target shareContext 23%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

57% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 5%

1.17 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.30 Shots allowedContext 10.90

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.80 BlocksContext 3.11

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

62% Save rateContext 79%

57% PossessionIn forecast 55%

510 PassesContext 477

442 Accurate passesContext 409

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.60 FoulsContext 9.10

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest13.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km941 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest13.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel655 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.2Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov	13.3Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	655 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	941 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-3

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

4A. Buongiorno 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

3Miguel Gutiérrez 8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 22G. Di Lorenzo

70N. Lang 19R. Højlund 7David Neres

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

69H. Ahanor 4I. Hien 19B. Djimsiti

77D. Zappacosta 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 16R. Bellanova

8M. Pašalić

11A. Lookman 17C. De Ketelaere

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli+0.0 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Atalanta+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-0
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 0.80

Atalanta · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-1
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 0.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Napoli	Atalanta
Como	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 H
Lecce	W 1–0 A	W 4–1 H
Torino	L 0–1 A	W 3–0 A
AC Milan	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Pisa	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 H
Sassuolo	W 2–0 A	L 0–3 H
Points	10 of 18 · 1.67 per game	9 of 18 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Napoli wins0 draws3 Atalanta wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.75 Over 2.588% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

18 Jan 2025Atalanta2–3Napoli
3 Nov 2024Napoli0–3Atalanta
30 Mar 2024Napoli0–3Atalanta
25 Nov 2023Atalanta1–2Napoli
11 Mar 2023Napoli2–0Atalanta
5 Nov 2022Atalanta1–2Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	1.18
Conceded per game	0.91	1.00
Match goals	2.36	2.18	2.63
Over 1.5	64%	82%
Over 2.5	45%	27%	49%
Over 3.5	27%	9%
Both teams scored	45%	64%	53%
Clean sheets	36%	18%
Failed to score	27%	27%
Games	11	11

	Napoli	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.40	2.20	2.63
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.50
Corners conceded	3.40	3.40
Match total	8.40	9.90	8.84
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.45	1.64
Opponent cards	1.73	1.27
Match total	3.18	2.91	4.02
Over 3.5	45% 5/11	55% 6/11
Over 4.5	9% 1/11	0% 0/11

	Napoli	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	6.10
Corners conceded	3.00	3.50
Match total	8.70	9.60	8.84
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.10
Opponent cards	1.60	1.60
Match total	3.30	3.70	4.02
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 3.91

Red cards0.20league 0.12

Cards 5+51%league 40%

Fouls26.3league 26.2

Penalties0.43league 0.31

Home wins32%league 36%

Napoli7 with this referee

Record5-2-0 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.9 Pens for · against3 · 0

D29 Dec 23H · Monza0–04
W5 Feb 23A · Spezia3–02
D18 Apr 22H · AS Roma1–14
W3 Apr 22A · Atalanta3–13
W27 Feb 22A · Lazio2–12

Atalanta6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against3 · 1

W10 Nov 24H · Udinese2–11
W4 Jun 23H · Monza5–21
W9 Jan 23A · Bologna2–12
W1 Sep 22H · Torino3–11
L3 Apr 22H · Napoli1–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.