Napoli vs Como – 30 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 17:30 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–2Full time

Como 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Como. Napoli had 7.9 days of rest, Como 8 and had to travel 692 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel692 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Napoli45%

Draw24%

Como30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.27

Napoli48%

Draw25%

Como27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Napoli46%

Draw24%

Como30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.26

Napoli38%

Draw25%

Como37%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.42

Napoli45%

Draw25%

Como30%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.19

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

30°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 77%

Heat stress

RefereeLuca Pairetto

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 73

Team strength

Napoli

Como

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

61 AttackIn forecast 72

70 DefenceIn forecast 67

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Como

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Como

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

80% Scored inContext 80%

70% Clean sheetsContext 60%

14.00 ShotsContext 15.40

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

31% On target shareContext 34%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.70

60% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.13

8.60 Shots allowedContext 9.10

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.56

2.57 BlocksContext 3.11

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

77% Save rateContext 73%

61% PossessionIn forecast 62%

589 PassesContext 509

533 Accurate passesContext 453

91% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.92

8.50 FoulsContext 11.10

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli W

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 3 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

W22 AugA · Genoa2–01.7 xPts

Como D

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel692 km645 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 47 · 1 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

D22 AugA · Udinese1–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Como
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug	8Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	692 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,176 km	645 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Meret(G)

17M. Olivera 16Rafa Marín 13A. Rrahmani 22G. Di Lorenzo

8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 99F. Anguissa

70N. Lang 19R. Højlund 21M. Politano

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Como Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 99T. Chalobah 4Jacobo Ramón 27Yan Couto

7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla

20M. Baturina 10N. Paz 11Assane Diao

9A. Douvikas

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Absences are shown before kick-off

Como Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Como+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home No home games yet this season.

Como · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Napoli wins2 draws1 Como wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

2 May 2026Como0–0Napoli
1 Nov 2025Napoli0–0Como
23 Feb 2025Como2–1Napoli
4 Oct 2024Napoli3–1Como

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Como	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.88
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Napoli	Como	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.80
Conceded per game	0.60	0.80
Match goals	2.10	2.60	2.88
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	70%	60%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Como	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	10.00
Corners conceded	5.00	1.00
Match total	10.00	11.00	8.73
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	3.53
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Napoli	Como	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	6.00
Corners conceded	2.44	2.60
Match total	7.55	8.60	8.73
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.80
Match total	3.00	4.80	3.53
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Pairetto 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.51league 3.53

Red cards0.26league 0.00

Cards 5+52%league 20%

Fouls25.5league 24.9

Penalties0.41league 0.00

Home wins38%league 40%

Napoli8 with this referee

Record4-1-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against4 · 0

W25 Aug 24H · Bologna3–02
L11 May 24H · Bologna0–22
L30 Mar 24H · Atalanta0–32
D25 Feb 24A · Cagliari1–11
W30 Sep 23A · Lecce4–02

Como6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

W22 Mar 26H · Pisa5–00
D1 Feb 26H · Atalanta0–04
W6 Jan 26A · Pisa3–02
L2 Mar 25A · AS Roma1–27
L25 Jan 25H · Atalanta1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.