Napoli vs Fiorentina – 31 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 23 Sat, Jan 31 · 17:00 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 4th · 43 pts · 22 played DDDWL

2–1Full time

Fiorentina 18th · 17 pts · 22 played WDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fiorentina. Napoli had 6 days of rest, Fiorentina 7 and had to travel 409 km.

Away travel409 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Napoli56%

Draw24%

Fiorentina20%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.98

Napoli60%

Draw23%

Fiorentina17%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.92

Napoli58%

Draw24%

Fiorentina18%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.94

Napoli49%

Draw26%

Fiorentina25%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.09

Napoli57%

Draw23%

Fiorentina20%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.03

Over 2.5 53% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 45

Team strength

Napoli

Fiorentina

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

60 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

61 AttackIn forecast 42

70 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Fiorentina

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.09

0.91 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

73% Scored inContext 73%

41% Clean sheetsContext 14%

12.55 ShotsContext 13.50

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.55

36% On target shareContext 26%

8.05 Shots in the boxContext 8.77

63% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.64 OffsidesContext 2.24

10.73 Shots allowedContext 12.82

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.73

3.38 BlocksContext 3.23

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.05

68% Save rateContext 64%

57% PossessionIn forecast 53%

532 PassesContext 423

460 Accurate passesContext 358

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.59 FoulsContext 12.55

13.18 Fouls sufferedContext 15.82

1.32 Yellow cardsContext 2.27

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.20 ShotsContext 16.70

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

30% On target shareContext 31%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

66% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.38 OffsidesContext 1.88

10.50 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.70 BlocksContext 3.70

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

63% Save rateContext 65%

59% PossessionIn forecast 56%

573 PassesContext 475

502 Accurate passesContext 414

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.96

10.80 FoulsContext 11.50

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,423 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel409 km160 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan	7Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	409 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,423 km	160 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Meret(G)

5Juan Jesus 4A. Buongiorno 22G. Di Lorenzo

37L. Spinazzola 8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 3Miguel Gutiérrez

20E. Elmas 26A. Vergara

19R. Højlund

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo 2Dodô

44N. Fagioli

10A. Guðmundsson 4M. Brescianini 80G. Fabbian 19M. Solomon

91R. Piccoli

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli-1.6 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Fiorentina+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.40points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 7-3-0
Scored: 1.70
Conceded: 0.80

Fiorentina · Away 0.73points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-5
Scored: 0.82
Conceded: 1.55

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Napoli	Fiorentina
Juventus	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	L 1–3 A
Parma	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
Inter	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H	L 0–3 A
Verona	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 H
Lazio	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 A
Cremonese	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 H
Udinese	L 0–1 A	W 5–1 H
AS Roma	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 A
Bologna	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Como	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Lecce	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Torino	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Genoa	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
AC Milan	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Pisa	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Points	40 of 63 · 1.90 per game	17 of 63 · 0.81 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Napoli wins2 draws2 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.78 – 1.22 Over 2.578% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 11%

13 Sep 2025Fiorentina1–3Napoli
9 Mar 2025Napoli2–1Fiorentina
4 Jan 2025Fiorentina0–3Napoli
17 May 2024Fiorentina2–2Napoli
8 Oct 2023Napoli1–3Fiorentina
7 May 2023Napoli1–0Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.09
Conceded per game	0.91	1.55
Match goals	2.32	2.64	2.78
Over 1.5	64%	77%
Over 2.5	45%	59%	53%
Over 3.5	27%	27%
Both teams scored	41%	68%	53%
Clean sheets	41%	14%
Failed to score	27%	27%
Games	22	22

	Napoli	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.40
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	2.10	2.90	2.78
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	53%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.85	4.64
Corners conceded	2.85	4.55
Match total	7.70	9.19	8.74
Over 8.5	30% 6/20	64% 14/22
Over 9.5	20% 4/20	59% 13/22
Over 10.5	20% 4/20	27% 6/22
Cards
Cards	1.41	2.36
Opponent cards	2.05	2.36
Match total	3.46	4.72	3.93
Over 3.5	41% 9/22	73% 16/22
Over 4.5	14% 3/22	59% 13/22

	Napoli	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.20
Corners conceded	1.80	4.80
Match total	7.30	10.00	8.74
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.30
Opponent cards	2.30	2.70
Match total	3.60	5.00	3.93
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.31league 3.80

Red cards0.11league 0.16

Cards 5+40%league 36%

Fouls26.0league 25.5

Penalties0.29league 0.32

Home wins38%league 38%

Napoli9 with this referee

Record6-2-1 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

W7 Dec 25H · Juventus2–12
W5 Oct 25H · Genoa2–11
W23 May 25H · Cagliari2–02
W19 Apr 25A · Monza1–02
W21 Dec 24A · Genoa2–11

Fiorentina9 with this referee

Record6-1-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.6 Pens for · against3 · 1

W4 Jan 26H · Cremonese1–01
D26 Oct 25H · Bologna2–23
L10 Feb 25A · Inter1–23
W3 Nov 24A · Torino1–01
L7 Apr 24A · Juventus0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.