Napoli vs Juventus – 7 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 14 Sun, Dec 7 · 19:45 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 3rd · 28 pts · 13 played WDLWW

2–1Full time

Juventus 7th · 23 pts · 13 played WWDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Napoli had 7 days of rest, Juventus 8.1 and had to travel 711 km.

Away travel711 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Napoli46%

Draw27%

Juventus27%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.09

Napoli48%

Draw26%

Juventus26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Napoli47%

Draw27%

Juventus26%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.06

Napoli39%

Draw28%

Juventus33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.22

Napoli47%

Draw26%

Juventus27%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.15

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 41

Team strength

Napoli

Juventus

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

61 AttackIn forecast 57

70 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Juventus

1.54 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

0.85 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

77% Scored inContext 69%

38% Clean sheetsContext 31%

13.15 ShotsContext 16.23

5.15 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.46

39% On target shareContext 34%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

61% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.00 Shots allowedContext 10.46

2.62 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.85

2.92 BlocksContext 2.92

1.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.92

70% Save rateContext 68%

57% PossessionIn forecast 58%

513 PassesContext 507

442 Accurate passesContext 441

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.92

13.08 FoulsContext 13.00

12.77 Fouls sufferedContext 11.15

1.54 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.48

60% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.00 ShotsContext 16.90

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

34% On target shareContext 40%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

58% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 7%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.60 Shots allowedContext 11.70

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.00 BlocksContext 4.60

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 73%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

485 PassesContext 485

413 Accurate passesContext 419

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.80 FoulsContext 14.90

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km373 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel711 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov	8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	711 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	373 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-3

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

4A. Buongiorno 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

17M. Olivera 8S. McTominay 20E. Elmas 22G. Di Lorenzo

70N. Lang 19R. Højlund 7David Neres

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

8T. Koopmeiners 6L. Kelly 15P. Kalulu

32J. Cabal 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 22W. McKennie 27A. Cambiaso

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Juventus+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.83

Juventus · Away 1.33points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-2
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Napoli	Juventus
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Como	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
Inter	W 3–1 H	W 4–3 H
Torino	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
AC Milan	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Fiorentina	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	16 of 24 · 2.00 per game	13 of 24 · 1.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Napoli wins2 draws1 Juventus wins

Goals per game1.63 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 25%

25 Jan 2025Napoli2–1Juventus
21 Sep 2024Juventus0–0Napoli
3 Mar 2024Napoli2–1Juventus
8 Dec 2023Juventus1–0Napoli
23 Apr 2023Juventus0–1Napoli
13 Jan 2023Napoli5–1Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.54	1.31
Conceded per game	0.85	0.92
Match goals	2.38	2.23	2.61
Over 1.5	62%	69%
Over 2.5	46%	31%	48%
Over 3.5	31%	15%
Both teams scored	46%	54%	52%
Clean sheets	38%	31%
Failed to score	23%	31%
Games	13	13

	Napoli	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.90
Match goals	2.40	1.90	2.61
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	4.75
Corners conceded	3.42	4.58
Match total	8.17	9.33	8.83
Over 8.5	33% 4/12	42% 5/12
Over 9.5	25% 3/12	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	25% 3/12	33% 4/12
Cards
Cards	1.54	1.77
Opponent cards	1.92	2.38
Match total	3.46	4.15	4.05
Over 3.5	46% 6/13	62% 8/13
Over 4.5	15% 2/13	46% 6/13

	Napoli	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.33
Corners conceded	3.40	5.33
Match total	8.40	9.66	8.83
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.30
Match total	4.10	3.90	4.05
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.34league 3.91

Red cards0.12league 0.15

Cards 5+41%league 38%

Fouls26.0league 26.0

Penalties0.32league 0.32

Home wins34%league 40%

Napoli8 with this referee

Record5-2-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

W5 Oct 25H · Genoa2–11
W23 May 25H · Cagliari2–02
W19 Apr 25A · Monza1–02
W21 Dec 24A · Genoa2–11
W15 Sep 24A · Cagliari4–02

Juventus2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W7 Apr 24H · Fiorentina1–02
W19 Feb 23A · Spezia2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.